Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $3.53K
- Potential payout
- $28.22K
- Potential profit
- $24.69K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.77K
Polymarket Trader
DemoKratic
0x0e4034fc0003015b546001472d102d398e68f622
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.05K
- Realized PnL
- $8.7K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 17
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $142.63
- Potential payout
- $25.93K
- Potential profit
- $25.79K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$767.29
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $20K
- User PnL
- -$20
N
No position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.67K
- Potential profit
- $16.67K
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $251.28
- Potential payout
- $5.58K
- Potential profit
- $5.33K
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$149.72
Yes position
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $12.78
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.1K
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- $2.78
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $63.89
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- -$136.11
Yes position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $869.57
- Potential profit
- $869.57
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $4.74
- Potential payout
- $632.32
- Potential profit
- $627.58
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$3.26
Yes position
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $6.76
- Potential payout
- $588.24
- Potential profit
- $581.47
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$3.24
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $14.73
- Potential payout
- $415.97
- Potential profit
- $401.24
- Multiplier
- 28.25x
- User PnL
- -$45.27
Yes position
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be at least 2.5%?
Ends Jan 10, 2027- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $17.5
- Potential payout
- $411.71
- Potential profit
- $394.21
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- -$87.5
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $208.33
- Potential profit
- $208.33
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.11
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $45.34
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$9.89
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $2.88
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $22.13
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$2.13
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.8%
- Current value
- $0.83
- Potential payout
- $17.5
- Potential profit
- $16.67
- Multiplier
- 21.05x
- User PnL
- -$2.67
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.03
- Potential payout
- $10.89
- Potential profit
- $10.86
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.98
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.27K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.95K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $981.02
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $582.89
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $446.82
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $231.71
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $223.98
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $185.71
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $178.62
No position
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $161.89
Yes position
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 23?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.17
Yes position
Israel military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.21
Yes position
US military action against Iran by Sunday?
Ends Jun 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.33
Yes position
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.56
Yes position
India x Pakistan ceasefire announced before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.67
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.75
Yes position
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.14
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.91
Yes position
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.79
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.54
Yes position
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.52
No position
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.57
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 0.3% 3,333.33 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 0.3% 10,000 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 0.3% 3,333.33 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 4.8% 208.33 shares
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Yes 1.8% 5,518.84 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 20% 500.4 shares
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Yes 1.8% 5,555.56 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 19.7% 2,031.3 shares
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Yes 1.8% 555.56 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 17% 1,176.47 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 16.8% 2,968.22 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Yes 41% 58.54 shares