Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.55K
- Potential profit
- $17.55K
- User PnL
- -$361.96
Polymarket Trader
Imbarus
0x0f46c93d1ce0891267f158bc4073b491929fbfb3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $199.01
- Realized PnL
- $3.18K
- Win rate
- 41.7%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $76.06
- Potential payout
- $1.32K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- -$91.02
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$110
Yes position
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $115
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $885
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$45
Yes position
Erdoğan out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$140
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $7.95
- Potential payout
- $481.59
- Potential profit
- $473.64
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$23.27
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$70
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.55K
Yes position
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $762.92
No position
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $652.49
Yes position
Brian Thompson Perp arrested by Friday?
Ends Dec 13, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $361.07
No position
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $133
No position
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129
Yes position
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.24
Yes position
Russia claims responsibility for downing Azerbaijan plane?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $42.08
No position
Russia claims responsibility for downing Azerbaijan plane?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.95
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18
Yes position
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.62
No position
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$22.5
Yes position
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$44.79
No position
Will there be a US Government shutdown?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$45
Yes position
Will 'Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree' win Game of the Year?
Ends Dec 12, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$45
Yes position
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Russian Ruble ₽110 to $1 USD by December 20?
Ends Dec 20, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$84.99
No position
Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Luigi Mangione tweet again by Friday?
Ends Dec 13, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$150
Yes position
Pump.fun banned in the US before 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$150
Yes position
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$280.92
Yes position
Assad public appearance before 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$286.89
Yes position
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$342.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Yes 16% 580 shares
- Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?Yes 6.5% 194.73 shares
- Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Yes 10% 169.36 shares
- Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?Yes 16% 1,000 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Yes 11% 1,000 shares
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?Yes 1% 2,258.92 shares
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?Yes 0.9% 1,626 shares
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?Yes 0.8% 1,417.7 shares
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?Yes 0.7% 1,460.56 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?No 82% 100 shares
- Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?Yes 35% 194.88 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: Russia EditionNo 10% 500 shares