Polymarket Trader

arrrnay

0x0fa9ba2fd8585033b93367bd1032f74d3efa22eb

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $578.35
Realized PnL: $2.42K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 17.1%
Current value: $68.92
Potential payout: $404.24
Potential profit: $335.31
Multiplier: 5.87x
User PnL: $33.34

Yes position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $140.27
Potential payout: $250.48
Potential profit: $110.21
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: $0.27

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $180.25
Potential profit: $180.25
User PnL: -$19.83

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $179.94
Potential profit: $179.94
User PnL: -$9.45

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $10.02
Potential payout: $160.29
Potential profit: $150.28
Multiplier: 16.00x
User PnL: -$3.48

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.2%
Current value: $17.25
Potential payout: $131.16
Potential profit: $113.91
Multiplier: 7.60x
User PnL: -$3.92

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $90.59
Potential payout: $103.53
Potential profit: $12.94
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $2.59

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $6.26
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $83.75
Multiplier: 14.39x
User PnL: -$3.1

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 40.3%
Current value: $34.63
Potential payout: $85.93
Potential profit: $51.3
Multiplier: 2.48x
User PnL: $1.63

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 22.7%
Current value: $18.45
Potential payout: $81.44
Potential profit: $63
Multiplier: 4.42x
User PnL: -$4.51

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $80
User PnL: -$4.4

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $63.39
Potential payout: $64
Potential profit: $0.61
User PnL: $7.71

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $36.41
Potential payout: $54.75
Potential profit: $18.34
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $3.01

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $46.91
Potential payout: $53
Potential profit: $6.09
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.27

No position

World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $21.4
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $0.61
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.52

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $9.95
Potential payout: $11
Potential profit: $1.05
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $1.83

No position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $7.65
Potential payout: $8.5
Potential profit: $0.85
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $0.27

No position

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $3.73
Potential payout: $4.63
Potential profit: $0.9
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $0.35

No position

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.8%
Current value: $2.55
Potential payout: $2.66
Potential profit: $0.11
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $267.97

No position

Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $261.73

No position

Will Trump say "Stupid" during Iowa speech?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $221.78

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $217.23

No position

Will Leavitt say "Tariff" during the next White House Press Briefing?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $160.53

No position

Will Keir Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.29

No position

Will Starmer say "Conservative" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.44

Yes position

Will Trump or Melania say "Honey" or "Darling" during film screening?

Ends Jan 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93

No position

Will Leavitt say "State of the Union" during the next White House Press Briefing?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.63

Spirit position

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.32

No position

Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.62

No position

Will Leavitt say "Supreme Court" during the next White House Press Briefing?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75

Yes position

Will Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next press briefing?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.64

Yes position

Will Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next White House press briefing?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.92

No position

Will Keir Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.25

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $60.89

No position

Will Leavitt say "Commander" during the next White House press briefing?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.15

White Sox position

White Sox vs. Rays

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.53

Yes position

Will Leavitt say "American people" 5+ times during the next press briefing?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.74

No position

Will J.D. Vance say "Ass" in Ohio on Thursday?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $47.49

No position

Will Leavitt say "Healthcare" during the next White House Press Briefing?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.98

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 3?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.47

No position

Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.43

Yes position

Will Trump say "Caspian Sea" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?

Ends Nov 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.75

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?

No 99.2% 26 shares
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

No 93.6% 305 shares
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner

FURIA 36% 27.5 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 34% 41.18 shares
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner

Team Falcons 37% 27.03 shares
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner

Spirit 42% 28.57 shares
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Aurora Gaming 19% 105.24 shares
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Spirit 56% 178 shares
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner

Spirit 47.8% 41.88 shares
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner

Spirit 61% 24.59 shares
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

FURIA 48% 29.17 shares
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner

FURIA 68% 19.12 shares