Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $512.5
- Potential payout
- $531.91
- Potential profit
- $19.41
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $12.5
Polymarket Trader
gregoryar
0x0fab8e3105e519e0572707e1f8790838799135ac
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $964.57
- Realized PnL
- $811.28
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
N
No position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $315.79
- Potential profit
- $315.79
- User PnL
- -$300
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $189.66
- Potential payout
- $229.89
- Potential profit
- $40.23
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$10.34
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $112.28
- Potential payout
- $139.47
- Potential profit
- $27.2
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $6.28
N
No position
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $104.93
- Potential payout
- $106.04
- Potential profit
- $1.11
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $4.93
Yes position
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $60
- User PnL
- -$12
N
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.8%
- Current value
- $23.2
- Potential payout
- $26.14
- Potential profit
- $2.94
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 84.4%
- Current value
- $22.02
- Potential payout
- $26.09
- Potential profit
- $4.07
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 20, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.18
- Potential profit
- $16.18
- User PnL
- -$11
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.51
- Potential profit
- $15.51
- User PnL
- -$13
No position
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.93
- Potential profit
- $8.93
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $401.01
No position
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $188.24
Yes position
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.39
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.39
Yes position
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.39
No position
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $13.71
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.85
Yes position
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.45
Yes position
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.28
No position
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.14
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.6
Yes position
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.06
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.14
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.7
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.15
Yes position
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.46
Yes position
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.99
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.99
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.93
No position
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.91
No position
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
Ends Apr 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.65
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.65
No position
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
Ends Jan 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.6
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.6
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?No 88% 26.14 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 84.3% 26.09 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes 94% 531.91 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes 87% 229.89 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 76% 139.47 shares
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No 94.3% 106.04 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes 90.4% 232.26 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 67.5% 148.07 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 15% 529.1 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?Yes 83.6% 119.59 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 95% 315.79 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 18.9% 529.1 shares