Polymarket Trader

quarter-kelly

0x0fe8106d0ad364822e59257e006e3047727b2cba

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $0
Realized PnL: $25K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35K
Potential profit: $35K
User PnL: -$70

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.8K
Potential profit: $7.8K
User PnL: -$62.42

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$40.55

Yes position

Will the Los Angeles Sparks win the 2025 WNBA Championship?

Ends Oct 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.82K
Potential profit: $2.82K
User PnL: -$11.52

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.97K
Potential profit: $1.97K
User PnL: -$146.86

Yes position

Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.82K
Potential profit: $1.82K
User PnL: -$96.36

Yes position

Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$14.41

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
User PnL: -$31.12

Yes position

Will Brent Rooker win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?

Ends Jul 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $591.88
Potential profit: $591.88
User PnL: -$47.35

Phoenix Mercury position

Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500.58
Potential profit: $500.58
User PnL: -$250.29

Atlanta Dream position

Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5)

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $273
Potential profit: $273
User PnL: -$147.42

Atlanta Dream position

Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5)

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$125

Toronto Tempo position

Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5)

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $75.36
Potential profit: $75.36
User PnL: -$37.68

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 18, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.51K

Yes position

Justin Fields Week 1 starter for Steelers?

Ends Sep 8, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.98K

No position

Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.53K

Yes position

1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.29K

No position

3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $829.21

Yes position

Biden drops out in July?

Ends Jul 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $672.1

Los Angeles Sparks position

Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5)

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $258.46

Indiana Fever position

Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $257.74

Seattle Storm position

Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-4.5)

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250.04

Italy position

Will Belgium or Italy qualify for the Euro 2020 Semifinals?

Ends Jul 2, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $238.7

No position

Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?

Ends Oct 15, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $225.99

No position

(NBA) Bucks in six?

Ends Jul 14, 2020

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 4159191.68x
User PnL: $176.04

No position

Will $DOGE reach $1 at any point before June 15, 2021?

Ends Jun 15, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164.89

Yes position

Will Italy win the Euro 2020?

Ends Jul 11, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $121.19

No position

Will the US have more than 200,000 new daily COVID-19 cases on or before October 1, 2021?

Ends Oct 5, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.2

Yes position

Will Patrick Bertoletti eat the most hot dogs?

Ends Jul 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90

No position

Will PNAS retract Dan Ariely’s 2012 paper on dishonesty by October 1, 2021?

Ends Oct 1, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 29670257.01x
User PnL: $58.83

Lakers position

Will the Warriors or the Lakers win their NBA play-in tournament matchup?

Ends May 19, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.25

No position

Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during his Pennsylvania rally?

Ends Sep 23, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.99

Yes position

Will the FDA approve any COVID-19 vaccination for children under 12 by October 15?

Ends Oct 15, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 6458428.02x
User PnL: $42.62

Yes position

Will Donald Trump say "McDonald's" during his Pennsylvania rally?

Ends Sep 23, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.88

Yes position

Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York on January 1, 2022?

Ends Jan 1, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 2132336.62x
User PnL: $34.24

No position

Will Elon Musk mention DOGE in his SNL appearance?

Ends May 8, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 6733179.52x
User PnL: $23.5

No position

Will 205 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by September 1?

Ends Sep 1, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 4689314.61x
User PnL: $16.18

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)

Indiana Fever 51% 526 shares
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5)

Toronto Tempo 50% 75.36 shares
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)

Phoenix Mercury 50% 2 shares
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)

Phoenix Mercury 50% 470 shares
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5)

Los Angeles Sparks 52% 538.46 shares
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Yes 3.1% 750 shares
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Yes 3% 241.21 shares
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Yes 0.9% 1,432.29 shares
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Yes 5.3% 1,821 shares
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Yes 0.8% 7,802.5 shares
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Yes 15.6% 400 shares
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?

Yes 7.9% 1,475.6 shares