Yes position
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $3.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $496.25
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.25
Polymarket Trader
darkestpool
0x10445fd428f2293dec2d117f3cf75f9c57d88ceb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $134.75
- Realized PnL
- $941.01
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $2.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $497.25
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$2.25
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $8.96
- Potential payout
- $314.37
- Potential profit
- $305.41
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.14
- Potential payout
- $270.48
- Potential profit
- $270.34
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.57
Yes position
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $4.13
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $245.88
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
Yes position
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $2.63
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $247.38
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$2.38
Yes position
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $3.13
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $246.88
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.13
Yes position
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $6.63
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $243.38
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- $2.38
Yes position
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $3.88
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $246.13
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$1.13
Yes position
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $4.38
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $245.63
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.13
Yes position
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $29.65
- Potential payout
- $237.2
- Potential profit
- $207.55
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.96
Yes position
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $4.93
- Potential payout
- $219
- Potential profit
- $214.07
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- -$1.22
Yes position
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.45
- Potential payout
- $180
- Potential profit
- $179.55
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.35
Yes position
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $5.08
- Potential payout
- $166.66
- Potential profit
- $161.58
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- $0.75
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $166.61
- Potential profit
- $165.86
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$3.84
Yes position
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.67
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $149.33
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$2.18
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.3%
- Current value
- $22.88
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $127.13
- Multiplier
- 6.56x
- User PnL
- $9.38
Yes position
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $2.63
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $147.38
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- $0.23
Yes position
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $1.5
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $148.5
- Multiplier
- 100.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.22
- Potential payout
- $148.8
- Potential profit
- $148.58
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$9.44
Yes position
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Ends Sep 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $3.47
- Potential payout
- $147.8
- Potential profit
- $144.33
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- $0.92
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $7.81
- Potential payout
- $143.33
- Potential profit
- $135.52
- Multiplier
- 18.35x
- User PnL
- -$4.51
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.9%
- Current value
- $8.66
- Potential payout
- $110.27
- Potential profit
- $101.61
- Multiplier
- 12.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $5.7
- Potential payout
- $108.66
- Potential profit
- $102.96
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180.41
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72
Thunder position
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.69
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
Ends Apr 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.78
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.45
San Diego Padres position
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.63
Dayana Yastremska position
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Dayana Yastremska vs Ann Li
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.58
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.83
Arthur Rinderknech position
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Karen Khachanov
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.33
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
Ends Apr 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.84
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.76
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.62
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.99
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
Ends Apr 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.61
Donna Vekic position
Upper Austria Ladies Linz, Qualification: Iryna Shymanovich vs Donna Vekic
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.11
No position
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.01
Yes position
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.58
Oman position
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Namibia vs Oman
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.42
Moise Kouame position
Roland Garros ATP: Marin Cilic vs Moise Kouame
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.27
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.71
Nerman Fatic position
Madrid: Nerman Fatic vs Pol Martin Tiffon
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.53
Tyler Zink position
Sarasota: Tyler Zink vs Colton Smith
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.47
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.18
Enzo Aguiard position
Little Rock: Dane Sweeny vs Enzo Aguiard
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.19
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?No 80% 7.13 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25?No 99% 5 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 74% 10.99 shares
- Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?No 88% 6.47 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 39% 12.13 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 57% 10 shares
- Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No 88% 7.59 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?No 91% 16.75 shares
- No one announced as next James Bond?Yes 98.6% 5 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26?No 99% 5 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on June 25?No 98.7% 5 shares
- Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 34% 7.71 shares