mln19

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $4.05
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $295.95
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $4.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $295.5
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $4.65
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $295.35
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$0.12

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $10.35
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $289.65
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$0.65

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $3.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $296.85
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$1.55

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $14.44
Potential payout: $205.1
Potential profit: $190.66
Multiplier: 14.20x
User PnL: $8.48

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $12.6
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $187.4
Multiplier: 15.87x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $1.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $198.3
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.9

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 10.8%
Current value: $21.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $178.5
Multiplier: 9.30x
User PnL: $8.8

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 9.6%
Current value: $18.27
Potential payout: $191.26
Potential profit: $172.99
Multiplier: 10.47x
User PnL: $13.83

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $9.45
Potential payout: $191
Potential profit: $181.55
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: $3.85

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $3.38
Potential payout: $182.45
Potential profit: $179.07
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: $0.88

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 7.7%
Current value: $11.66
Potential payout: $152.37
Potential profit: $140.71
Multiplier: 13.07x
User PnL: $1.8

Yes position

Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $62.92
Potential payout: $144.65
Potential profit: $81.73
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $28.05

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 8.2%
Current value: $10.62
Potential payout: $130.34
Potential profit: $119.72
Multiplier: 12.27x
User PnL: $4.74

Yes position

Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $28.6
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $81.4
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $18.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $81.5
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $5.5

Yes position

Will Winston Peters be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.35
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$6.29

Yes position

Will New Zealand First Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.5
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $14.62
Potential payout: $79
Potential profit: $64.39
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $6.95

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 8.8%
Current value: $6.89
Potential payout: $78.77
Potential profit: $71.88
Multiplier: 11.43x
User PnL: $0.76

Yes position

Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $29.96
Potential payout: $56
Potential profit: $26.04
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $20.09

Yes position

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + NZF?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.92
Potential payout: $55.79
Potential profit: $54.87
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $10.62
Potential payout: $50.56
Potential profit: $39.94
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$1.26

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump win Florida by 12+ points?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $397.75

Yes position

Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% or higher?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $386.41

Yes position

Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $343.46

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $297.51

Yes position

Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $295.99

Yes position

Will Trump win Miami?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $268.45

Yes position

Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 10-12.5%

Ends Jan 22, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $264.2

Yes position

Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 20-30% of the vote?

Ends Feb 20, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $239.24

Yes position

Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $239

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $211

Yes position

Will Adam Schiff get first place in the California Senate Primary?

Ends Feb 28, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $191.85

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?

Ends Sep 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.2

Yes position

Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 78 and 81%?

Ends Sep 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.07

Yes position

Will Alaska have highest margin of victory for Trump in Super Tuesday Republican Primaries?

Ends Mar 3, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175.5

Yes position

Trump wins every swing state?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.67

Yes position

Will FAST win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election?

Ends Aug 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $165.35

Yes position

Will turnout be between 6.2 million and 6.6 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $162.79

Yes position

Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?