Polymarket Trader

MrFate

0x10dc2a8bb9ade4ee723d1ca456cb25a739e997cf

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $34.3
Realized PnL: -$14.34
Win rate: 33.3%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 6
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30K
Potential profit: $30K
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 27?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$3

No position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $1.15K
User PnL: -$32

Yes position

US defaults on debt by 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.6%
Current value: $34.3
Potential payout: $952.78
Potential profit: $918.48
Multiplier: 27.78x
User PnL: $1.1

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 28?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $512.63
Potential profit: $512.63
User PnL: -$9.2

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 27?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on January 28?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $149.99
Potential profit: $149.99
User PnL: -$2

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.55
Potential profit: $81.55
User PnL: -$33.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.99
Potential profit: $40.99
User PnL: -$1.23

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.75
Potential profit: $40.75
User PnL: -$2.99

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.27
Potential profit: $29.27
User PnL: -$4.98

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.29
Potential profit: $28.29
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.99
Potential profit: $24.99
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.99
Potential profit: $24.99
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.27
Potential profit: $14.27
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.85
Potential profit: $11.85
User PnL: -$2.79

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.09
Potential profit: $11.09
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.13
Potential profit: $7.13
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.22
Potential profit: $6.22
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.97
Potential profit: $4.97
User PnL: -$0.99

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.77

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.09

Yes position

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$1.13

Yes position

Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.65

Yes position

NATO dissolves before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.2%
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$6.22

Yes position

AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$11.2

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US defaults on debt by 2027?

Yes 4.9% 25 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Up 14% 7.12 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Up 43% 9.06 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Up 11% 9.07 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Up 28% 3.54 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Up 3% 33.33 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Up 24% 4.13 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Up 30% 3.3 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Up 99% 3.08 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Up 32% 3.09 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Up 9% 11.09 shares
US defaults on debt by 2027?

Yes 4.9% 80 shares