rivermarkets

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $36.54K
Potential payout: $198.07K
Potential profit: $161.53K
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $6.11K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $177.54K
Potential profit: $177.54K
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $154.4K
Potential profit: $154.4K
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $152K
Potential profit: $152K
User PnL: -$12.64K

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $100K
User PnL: -$36.09K

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.01K
Potential profit: $90.01K
User PnL: -$7.87K

Yes position

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $87.79K
Potential profit: $87.79K
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $86.56K
Potential profit: $86.56K
User PnL: -$1.55K

Yes position

Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $69.24K
Potential profit: $69.24K
User PnL: -$7.85K

Yes position

Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $64.48K
Potential profit: $64.48K
User PnL: -$6.08K

No position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61K
Potential profit: $61K
User PnL: -$816.13

Yes position

Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51.45K
Potential profit: $51.45K
User PnL: -$2.2K

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.5K
Potential profit: $50.5K
User PnL: -$3.02K

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46.18K
Potential profit: $46.18K
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.18K
Potential profit: $38.18K
User PnL: -$13.24K

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.63K
Potential profit: $36.63K
User PnL: -$109.89

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $4.96K
Potential payout: $36.3K
Potential profit: $31.35K
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$714.18

Yes position

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.1K
Potential profit: $36.1K
User PnL: -$2.21K

Yes position

Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.06K
Potential profit: $33.06K
User PnL: -$3.18K

Yes position

Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.91K
Potential profit: $32.91K
User PnL: $0

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.91K
Potential profit: $29.91K
User PnL: -$388.96

Yes position

Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.51K
Potential profit: $28.51K
User PnL: -$7.65K

Yes position

Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.31K
Potential profit: $27.31K
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.26K
Potential profit: $27.26K
User PnL: -$397.58

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $1.66K
Potential payout: $24.94K
Potential profit: $23.28K
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$480

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.38K
Potential profit: $22.38K
User PnL: -$67.13

Yes position

Will Miami Florida win the 2026 College Football National Championship?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.14K
Potential profit: $22.14K
User PnL: -$4.05K

Yes position

Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.94K
Potential profit: $20.94K
User PnL: -$3.58K

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.25K
Potential profit: $20.25K
User PnL: -$203.07

Yes position

Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.1K
Potential profit: $19.1K
User PnL: -$3.82K

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.06K
Potential profit: $19.06K
User PnL: -$40.44

No position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.9%
Current value: $3.58K
Potential payout: $19.01K
Potential profit: $15.43K
Multiplier: 5.31x
User PnL: -$3.5K

Yes position

Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.6K
Potential profit: $18.6K
User PnL: -$380.81

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.56K
Potential profit: $18.56K
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $1.26K
Potential payout: $17.12K
Potential profit: $15.86K
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: $48.86

Yes position

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.34K
Potential profit: $13.34K
User PnL: -$1.62K

Yes position

Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.32K
Potential profit: $13.32K
User PnL: -$3.97K

Yes position

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.29K
Potential profit: $13.29K
User PnL: -$318.24

Yes position

Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.29K
Potential profit: $13.29K
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.1K
Potential profit: $13.1K
User PnL: -$689.37

Yes position

Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.41K
Potential profit: $12.41K
User PnL: -$37.22

Yes position

Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.02K
Potential profit: $12.02K
User PnL: -$729.58

No position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.08K
Potential profit: $11.08K
User PnL: -$10.54K

Yes position

Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.05K
Potential profit: $11.05K
User PnL: -$1.48K

Yes position

Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.78K
Potential profit: $10.78K
User PnL: -$725.86

No position

Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.07K
Potential profit: $10.07K
User PnL: -$2.39K

Yes position

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.88K
Potential profit: $9.88K
User PnL: -$2.17K

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.38K
Potential profit: $9.38K
User PnL: -$37.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Oregon win the 2026 College Football National Championship?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.44K

No position

Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.12K

Yes position

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.42K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.28K

Yes position

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.96K

No position

Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?

Ends Jan 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.46K

Yes position

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.27K

Yes position

Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.05K

Yes position

Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.56K

No position

Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.34K

No position

Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.29K

Yes position

Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.26K

No position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.19K

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.82K

No position

Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.6K

No position

Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.51K

No position

Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.4K

No position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.07K

Yes position

Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.84K

Yes position

Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.71K

No position

Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.64K

No position

Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.61K

No position

Will Josh Allen win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.23K

Yes position

Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19K

No position

Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.12K

Silva position

UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1K

Yes position

Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $971.27

No position

Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $874.2

No position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $746.33

Yes position

Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $724.24

Nurmagomedov position

UFC 324: Figueiredo vs. Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $718.99

No position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 88.3%
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $534.25

Yes position

Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $494.22

No position

Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $450.54

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $449.09

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $446.86

No position

Will Miami Florida win the 2026 College Football National Championship?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $401.92

No position

Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $370.41

Yes position

Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $337.44

No position

Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $328.93

Yes position

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $322.95

Yes position

Will "His & Hers" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $314.22

No position

Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $312.36

Gautier position

UFC 324: Pulyaev vs. Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $303.45

Yes position

Will "His & Hers" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 3, 2026)

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $301.69

No position

Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $277.05

Yes position

Will Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $272.98

No position

Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $247.79

Yes position

Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $239.97

No position

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?