Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 16.2%
- Current value
- $22.79K
- Potential payout
- $141.11K
- Potential profit
- $118.32K
- Multiplier
- 6.19x
- User PnL
- -$47.77K
Polymarket Trader
okcoolstorybro
0x122cdd9db64fd8dc3ebab813218e3effe21f821f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $150.47K
- Realized PnL
- $239.11K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 83.9%
- Current value
- $118.32K
- Potential payout
- $141.11K
- Potential profit
- $22.79K
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $47.77K
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $4.13K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $875
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $1.63K
Yes position
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $161.32
- Potential payout
- $2.78K
- Potential profit
- $2.62K
- Multiplier
- 17.24x
- User PnL
- -$1.55K
No position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $451.34
- Potential payout
- $2.58K
- Potential profit
- $2.13K
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$838.21
No position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.4K
- Potential profit
- $2.4K
- User PnL
- -$1.88K
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Current value
- $2.22K
- Potential payout
- $2.31K
- Potential profit
- $90.05
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $151.95
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $188.48
- Potential payout
- $1.98K
- Potential profit
- $1.8K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$28.07
Yes position
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.59K
- Potential profit
- $1.59K
- User PnL
- -$962.34
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $33.3
- Potential payout
- $1.42K
- Potential profit
- $1.38K
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- -$4.96
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.35K
- Potential profit
- $1.35K
- User PnL
- -$1.03K
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.1%
- Current value
- $769.33
- Potential payout
- $835.77
- Potential profit
- $66.44
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $27.97
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $76.59
- Potential payout
- $666
- Potential profit
- $589.41
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$23.31
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $541.71
- Potential profit
- $541.71
- User PnL
- -$150.19
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $86.92
- Potential payout
- $496.7
- Potential profit
- $409.77
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$18.77
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 53%
- Current value
- $235.32
- Potential payout
- $444
- Potential profit
- $208.68
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- -$31.08
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $373.16
- Potential payout
- $387.3
- Potential profit
- $14.14
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $22.14
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $91.58
- Potential payout
- $333
- Potential profit
- $241.43
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- -$11.66
Yes position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.1%
- Current value
- $242.84
- Potential payout
- $323.18
- Potential profit
- $80.34
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- -$32.02
Yes position
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.6%
- Current value
- $16.9
- Potential payout
- $256.05
- Potential profit
- $239.15
- Multiplier
- 15.15x
- User PnL
- -$7.65
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $154.28
- Potential payout
- $187.01
- Potential profit
- $32.73
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$10.26
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.6%
- Current value
- $130.73
- Potential payout
- $144.37
- Potential profit
- $13.64
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $4.63
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $127.09K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.81K
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.71K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.19K
Yes position
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4?
Ends Feb 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.81K
No position
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.3K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.62K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.03K
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.89K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.6K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.54K
No position
Was Trump hacked?
Ends Jan 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.45K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.65K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.55K
Yes position
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.44K
No position
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.95K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.94K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.9K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.43K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.23K
Yes position
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
Yes position
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
No position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $944.35
Yes position
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $940.83
Yes position
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $937.66
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $891.39
Yes position
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 13?
Ends Feb 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $890.12
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $820.2
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $819.35
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $783.78
No position
Maduro out before September?
Ends Aug 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $725.44
Yes position
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $691.89
Yes position
Will there be a US Government shutdown?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $686.53
No position
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $681.51
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $667.94
No position
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $558.41
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $549.32
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $532.56
Yes position
Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $453.52
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $442.95
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $439.26
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $410.09
No position
Will Biden pardon Trump?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $401.15
No position
Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1?
Ends Jan 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $388.1
Yes position
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $385.69
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $380.28
No position
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $370.68
No position
Was Milei hacked?
Ends Feb 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $368.19
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $363.7
No position
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $345.52
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 98.9% 100,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 98.9% 50,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 98.8% 9.99 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?No 99.4% 3,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 88.2% 5,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 87.7% 8,239.21 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 83.7% 4,929.95 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 84% 4,066.02 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 82.8% 3,899.51 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 87.3% 144.37 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 84.9% 3,332.99 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 86.4% 5,555 shares