No position
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.2%
- Current value
- $817.75
- Potential payout
- $907.1
- Potential profit
- $89.35
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- -$12.74
Polymarket Trader
arbbotandrea
0x123ad7cf546ebc359dd383218de1b6c5259e2424
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.02K
- Realized PnL
- -$259.32
- Win rate
- 4.5%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $255.76
- Potential payout
- $288.99
- Potential profit
- $33.23
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $18.78
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $33.23
- Potential payout
- $288.99
- Potential profit
- $255.76
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$18.78
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 70%
- Current value
- $138.24
- Potential payout
- $197.49
- Potential profit
- $59.25
- Multiplier
- 1.43x
- User PnL
- -$5.92
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 30%
- Current value
- $59.25
- Potential payout
- $197.49
- Potential profit
- $138.24
- Multiplier
- 3.33x
- User PnL
- -$9.87
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $166.77
- Potential payout
- $197.36
- Potential profit
- $30.59
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $28.62
N
No position
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $2.16
- Potential payout
- $172.64
- Potential profit
- $170.48
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$22.01
Y
Yes position
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $170.48
- Potential payout
- $172.64
- Potential profit
- $2.16
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $20.29
No position
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $65.91
- Potential payout
- $87.3
- Potential profit
- $21.39
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $19.14
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $11.88
- Potential payout
- $72
- Potential profit
- $60.12
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$11.16
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.2%
- Current value
- $1.58
- Potential payout
- $71.79
- Potential profit
- $70.21
- Multiplier
- 45.45x
- User PnL
- -$32.67
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $56.58
- Potential payout
- $66.17
- Potential profit
- $9.59
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$2.1
No position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $33.33
- Potential payout
- $65.99
- Potential profit
- $32.67
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$14.19
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $63.64
- Potential profit
- $63.64
- User PnL
- -$20.36
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Current value
- $61.91
- Potential payout
- $63.3
- Potential profit
- $1.39
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $10.89
No position
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $28.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $21.25
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$2.75
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $41.36
- Potential payout
- $45.7
- Potential profit
- $4.34
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $6.63
Yes position
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $10.97
- Potential payout
- $43
- Potential profit
- $32.04
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.66
- Potential profit
- $41.66
- User PnL
- -$24.16
Over position
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.06
- Potential profit
- $32.06
- User PnL
- -$28.21
Yes position
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $19.38
- Potential payout
- $31
- Potential profit
- $11.63
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $6.67
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $24.84
- Potential payout
- $28.72
- Potential profit
- $3.88
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $24.22
- Potential payout
- $24.26
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- User PnL
- $14.01
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $24.26
- Potential profit
- $24.22
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$15.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
Y
Yes position
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Athletics position
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
N
No position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
N
No position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Down position
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Spurs position
Spread: Knicks (-9.5)
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.26
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.52
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$4.06
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$7.04
Up position
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$7.26
No position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- -$8.68
Colorado Rockies position
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$228.96
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 82% 288.99 shares
- Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?No 89.9% 42.71 shares
- Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?No 90.3% 42.71 shares
- Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?No 92% 42.72 shares
- Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?No 92% 42.72 shares
- Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?No 92% 42.72 shares
- Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?No 92% 42.72 shares
- Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?No 92% 42.72 shares
- Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?No 92% 42.72 shares
- Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?No 92% 42.72 shares
- Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?No 92% 42.72 shares
- Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?No 92% 42.72 shares