beary65

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.61K
Potential profit: $3.61K
User PnL: -$458.15

Shopify Rebellion position

LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.54K
Potential profit: $3.54K
User PnL: -$205.07

Dplus KIA position

LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.96K
Potential profit: $1.96K
User PnL: -$151.49

KT Rolster position

LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.72K
Potential profit: $1.72K
User PnL: -$225.59

Yes position

Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.53K
Potential profit: $1.53K
User PnL: -$18.4

T1 position

LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.45K
Potential profit: $1.45K
User PnL: -$272.44

Kiwoom DRX Challengers position

LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.39K
Potential profit: $1.39K
User PnL: -$322.17

No position

Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $868.05
Potential payout: $900
Potential profit: $31.95
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $119.05

Dplus KIA position

LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $850.3
Potential profit: $850.3
User PnL: -$88.18

Invictus Gaming position

LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$105

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming position

LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Game 2 Winner

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $392.29
Potential profit: $392.29
User PnL: -$119.92

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 71.5%
Current value: $172.32
Potential payout: $241.01
Potential profit: $68.69
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: -$10.38

EDward Gaming position

LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $223.91
Potential profit: $223.91
User PnL: -$97.88

KT Rolster Challengers position

LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$124

No position

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $133.72
Potential payout: $133.99
Potential profit: $0.27
User PnL: $14.47

Eintracht Frankfurt position

LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $97.03
Potential profit: $97.03
User PnL: -$0.97

DetonatioN FocusMe position

LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Game 1 Winner

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.85
Potential profit: $38.85
User PnL: -$1.94

Yes position

North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.77
Potential profit: $28.77
User PnL: -$7.77

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $6.73
Potential payout: $26.92
Potential profit: $20.19
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: -$9.69

No position

Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $14.79
Potential payout: $14.8
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $1.03

Yes position

Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$3.4

Resolved Context

Closed positions

DetonatioN FocusMe position

LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - LCP Regular Season

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $318.93

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $285.18

Yes position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $268.19

FlyQuest position

LoL: LYON vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $255.43

No position

Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $230

FlyQuest position

LoL: LYON vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $169.83

LYON position

LoL: LYON vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $126.78

EDward Gaming position

LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $119.74

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.81

FURIA Esports position

LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.51

LYON position

LoL: LYON vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $83.9

Yes position

Claude 4.7 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.97

Yes position

Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a human?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.56

FlyQuest position

LoL: LYON vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.32

No position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26

Team Liquid position

LoL: Team Liquid vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.86

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $25.57

Hanwha Life Esports position

LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25

T1 Academy position

LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.78

No position

Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.71

EDward Gaming position

LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.91

LNG Esports position

LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.55

No position

Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.82

Bilibili Gaming position

Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 2 Winner