Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $2.26
Polymarket Trader
Vance8ifi
0x12d3ff3872ddeba88927766f5a6214cfd370621c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0
- Realized PnL
- $12.15
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Latest Resolved Positions
No open position details returned
This trader has an open-position count, but open position cards are not available yet. Showing their latest closed positions instead.
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- $1.34
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.87
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $0.74
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.73
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $2.26
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- $1.34
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.87
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $0.74
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.73
Yes position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- $0.66
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- $0.59
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.34
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.17
Yes position
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Multiplier
- 30.77x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
Ends Apr 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Will Alberta join the US?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?No 98.1% 24 shares
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No 52% 66 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 97.6% 39 shares
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No 86% 40 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 58% 32 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 54% 73 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 53% 73 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 3.9% 66 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 55% 8 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 54% 58 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No 88% 43 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No 88% 43 shares