No position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.05K
- Potential profit
- $33.05K
- User PnL
- -$737.24
Polymarket Trader
drakelong
0x12d51de654df441c57e97c81156613681114f0eb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $19.03K
- Realized PnL
- $41.36K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $16.64K
- Potential payout
- $16.67K
- Potential profit
- $25.01
- User PnL
- $297.29
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.58K
- Potential profit
- $11.58K
- User PnL
- -$4.41K
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.96K
- Potential profit
- $8.96K
- User PnL
- -$5.2K
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $2.28K
- Potential payout
- $8.3K
- Potential profit
- $6.02K
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- -$1.83K
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $105.58
- Potential payout
- $2.58K
- Potential profit
- $2.47K
- Multiplier
- 24.39x
- User PnL
- -$509.46
Yes position
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $1.82K
- User PnL
- -$397.4
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.19K
- Potential profit
- $1.19K
- User PnL
- -$120.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.34K
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.21K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.44K
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.63K
Yes position
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.94K
No position
AWS service disrupted by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.85K
No position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7K
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.43K
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 11, 2026?
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.19K
Yes position
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.18K
No position
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
Yes position
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $993.54
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $569.28
No position
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $483.12
No position
BitBoy convicted?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $469.81
Yes position
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $362.77
Yes position
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $229.35
Yes position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.88
No position
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $192.64
Yes position
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $182.14
Yes position
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $181.07
Yes position
Major US official out by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $173.82
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $159.25
Yes position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150.63
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.4% 4,322 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?No 92.9% 1,145.19 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?No 92% 446.36 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?No 91% 472.12 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No 99.6% 2,500 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes 46.8% 4,555.62 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes 52.9% 3,745.84 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Yes 20% 575.19 shares
- Ebola emergency by June 30?Yes 45% 200 shares
- Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?No 0.7% 36.57 shares
- Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 92.6% 811.6 shares
- Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 96.4% 322.46 shares