No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $325.5K
- Potential profit
- $325.5K
- User PnL
- -$360.66
Polymarket Trader
classified
0x12d6cccfc7470a3f4bafc53599a4779cbf2cf2a8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $330.8K
- Realized PnL
- $2.59M
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $255.55K
- Potential profit
- $255.55K
- User PnL
- -$85.18K
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.9%
- Current value
- $58.65K
- Potential payout
- $245.9K
- Potential profit
- $187.25K
- Multiplier
- 4.19x
- User PnL
- -$64.3K
No position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 76.2%
- Current value
- $187.25K
- Potential payout
- $245.9K
- Potential profit
- $58.65K
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $64.3K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $205.4K
- Potential profit
- $205.4K
- User PnL
- -$205.4
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.6%
- Current value
- $67.6K
- Potential payout
- $80.86K
- Potential profit
- $13.26K
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $21.81K
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $10.91K
- Potential payout
- $70.4K
- Potential profit
- $59.49K
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$16.65K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $51.61K
- Potential profit
- $51.61K
- User PnL
- -$8.42K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38K
- Potential profit
- $38K
- User PnL
- -$32.52K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.77K
- Potential profit
- $24.77K
- User PnL
- -$990.77
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.72K
- Potential profit
- $17.72K
- User PnL
- -$617.22
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.98K
- Potential profit
- $12.98K
- User PnL
- -$101.12
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.8%
- Current value
- $580.15
- Potential payout
- $5.92K
- Potential profit
- $5.34K
- Multiplier
- 10.20x
- User PnL
- -$1.87K
Yes position
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $7.81
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$98.45
Yes position
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$103.66
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.65K
- Potential profit
- $4.65K
- User PnL
- -$132.16
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $895.66
- Potential payout
- $4.07K
- Potential profit
- $3.18K
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- -$854.31
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.12K
- Potential profit
- $3.12K
- User PnL
- -$206.85
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.63K
- Potential profit
- $2.63K
- User PnL
- -$473.65
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.12K
- Potential profit
- $2.12K
- User PnL
- -$103.5
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.08K
- Potential profit
- $2.08K
- User PnL
- -$45.67
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.81K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $190
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $130
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $1.62K
- Potential payout
- $1.64K
- Potential profit
- $19.65
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $46.45
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.63K
- Potential profit
- $1.63K
- User PnL
- -$63.53
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.37K
- Potential profit
- $1.37K
- User PnL
- -$62.93
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $1.18K
- User PnL
- -$132.15
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $103.84
- Potential payout
- $716.15
- Potential profit
- $612.31
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$68.03
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.34
- Potential payout
- $681.26
- Potential profit
- $680.92
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$26.91
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $671.07
- Potential profit
- $671.07
- User PnL
- -$313.91
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $667.32
- Potential payout
- $670
- Potential profit
- $2.68
- User PnL
- $43.55
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $660.32
- Potential payout
- $664.64
- Potential profit
- $4.32
- User PnL
- $26.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $602.17K
No position
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $368.07K
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $221.24K
No position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $142.77K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.88K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $84.51K
Yes position
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.14K
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.4K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.67K
Yes position
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $50.73K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.02K
Yes position
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $39.63K
No position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $38.59K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.26K
No position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $38.15K
Yes position
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.04K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $35.35K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30.65K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $27.95K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.1K
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.99K
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $23.65K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.63K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.92K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.68K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.36K
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.3K
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.92K
Yes position
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.31K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.3K
Yes position
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.11K
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.42K
Yes position
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.21K
Yes position
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.66K
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.36K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.28K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.16K
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.83K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.7K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.01K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.95K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.89K
Yes position
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET?
Ends Sep 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.43K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.23K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.07K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.63K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.46K
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.05K
Yes position
Will Catherine Connolly win by 20% or more?
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.81K
No position
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.28K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 16% 3,641.98 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 16% 2,200 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 84.3% 2,271.39 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes 0.6% 10,200 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes 99.9% 51.55 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 99.9% 172.36 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.7% 3,377.23 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.7% 10,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?No 0.1% 13,022.57 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.7% 38,614.49 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 0.1% 104.39 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 0.1% 59,100.47 shares