Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $19.3
- Potential payout
- $227
- Potential profit
- $207.7
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$5.67
Polymarket Trader
Molle-747
0x144080f729e44359043d63e961ac44925bb52eb0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $312.02
- Realized PnL
- $2.26K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Ends Sep 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 58%
- Current value
- $52.78
- Potential payout
- $91
- Potential profit
- $38.22
- Multiplier
- 1.72x
- User PnL
- $4.55
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $15.58
- Potential payout
- $89
- Potential profit
- $73.43
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$10.24
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $11.9
- Potential payout
- $61
- Potential profit
- $49.11
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$11.29
Yes position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $11.22
- Potential payout
- $44
- Potential profit
- $32.78
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$17.38
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $39.62
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $0.38
- User PnL
- $12.82
Yes position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $7.74
- Potential payout
- $38.71
- Potential profit
- $30.97
- Multiplier
- 5.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.77
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $31.95
- Potential payout
- $32
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- User PnL
- $2.19
No position
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $28.06
- Potential payout
- $31.01
- Potential profit
- $2.95
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $2.02
No position
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.1%
- Current value
- $27.31
- Potential payout
- $31
- Potential profit
- $3.69
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.92
No position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $24.55
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.6%
- Current value
- $18.16
- Potential payout
- $22
- Potential profit
- $3.84
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $1.16
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $5.99
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $5.96
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- User PnL
- $0.14
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $5.92
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.58
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $6
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $277.04
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $220.84
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $144.08
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $141.86
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.85
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.5
Yes position
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20?
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.49
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 5PM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.37
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4PM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.27
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.17
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.07
No position
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $72.04
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.36
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.4
Yes position
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-21?
Ends Mar 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.16
Yes position
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.82
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.81
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.46
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.57
No position
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.99
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.5
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.28
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 65% 44 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 95.4% 52 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 96.4% 52 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?Yes 91.5% 54 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 59% 10 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 63% 40 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?No 19% 37 shares
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goalsNo 42% 121 shares
- Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?No 53% 91 shares
- Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?No 35% 85 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 72% 70 shares
- Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?No 99.1% 26 shares