Polymarket Trader

arbdiscovery

0x14522999f234b77b148185d17a5e2b4f2756449c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.18K
Realized PnL: -$10.53
Win rate: 20%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 5
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $18.3
Potential payout: $2.44K
Potential profit: $2.42K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $1.08

Yes position

Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 14.7%
Current value: $89.65
Potential payout: $611.98
Potential profit: $522.32
Multiplier: 6.83x
User PnL: $12.13

Yes position

Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $490.99
Potential profit: $490.99
User PnL: -$51.93

No position

Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Ends Oct 26, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $308.79
Potential payout: $438
Potential profit: $129.21
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$7.92

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the GA-01 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $37.2
Potential payout: $310
Potential profit: $272.8
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: $3.1

Yes position

Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?

Ends Sep 15, 2026

Implied probability: 21.2%
Current value: $47.37
Potential payout: $223.96
Potential profit: $176.6
Multiplier: 4.73x
User PnL: -$5.84

Yes position

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21.9%
Current value: $45.75
Potential payout: $208.92
Potential profit: $163.16
Multiplier: 4.57x
User PnL: $29.58

Yes position

Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $85.11
Potential payout: $166.89
Potential profit: $81.77
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: -$7.65

Yes position

Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?

Ends Sep 15, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $88.79
Potential payout: $129.63
Potential profit: $40.83
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $4.52

Yes position

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $31.92
Potential payout: $114
Potential profit: $82.08
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: -$25.12

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $1.71
Potential payout: $110.59
Potential profit: $108.87
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$0.17

No position

Will the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $92.93
Potential payout: $105
Potential profit: $12.08
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $0.43

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $3.03
Potential payout: $102.86
Potential profit: $99.82
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: $0.15

No position

Will Yousef Rabhi be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $62.4
Potential payout: $96
Potential profit: $33.6
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: $7.68

No position

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $3.04
Potential payout: $86.96
Potential profit: $83.91
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$0.96

No position

Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?

Ends Nov 2, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $52.89
Potential payout: $82
Potential profit: $29.11
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: -$8.97

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $2.28
Potential payout: $68
Potential profit: $65.72
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: $0.92

No position

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $45.74
Potential payout: $62.66
Potential profit: $16.92
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: -$4.52

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $39
Potential payout: $52
Potential profit: $13
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $1.34

Yes position

Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?

Ends Oct 17, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $25.76
Potential payout: $51
Potential profit: $25.25
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $6.38

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the IA-02 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 64%
Current value: $32.64
Potential payout: $51
Potential profit: $18.36
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: $7.14

Yes position

Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $19.8
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $20.2
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 72%
Current value: $28.8
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $11.2
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Discord IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 37.9%
Current value: $13.26
Potential payout: $34.99
Potential profit: $21.73
Multiplier: 2.64x
User PnL: $0.14

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will John Peterson be the Republican nominee for SC-06?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.7

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Databricks IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$0.1

No position

Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.61

Yes position

Will Maurice Washington be the Republican nominee for SC-06?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$80.5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting?

No 58% 5 shares
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?

No 4.6% 86.96 shares
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?

Yes 67% 59.63 shares
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 82% 5 shares
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21?

Yes 10% 288 shares
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?

Yes 64% 62 shares
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21?

No 6.4% 79.94 shares
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

No 71.9% 393 shares
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21?

Yes 11.4% 202.99 shares
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Yes 12.7% 611.98 shares
Discord IPO before 2027?

No 37.5% 34.99 shares
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21?

No 10.9% 50.95 shares