Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $163.16
- Potential payout
- $4.61K
- Potential profit
- $4.45K
- Multiplier
- 28.25x
- User PnL
- -$343.83
Polymarket Trader
0x1484bb78aC9C59c5BE0f00ab11d2484d2c3Bfd01-1767422728782
0x1484bb78ac9c59c5be0f00ab11d2484d2c3bfd01
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $199.27
- Realized PnL
- $381.77
- Win rate
- 45.8%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.56K
- Potential profit
- $1.56K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $36.11
- Potential payout
- $555.56
- Potential profit
- $519.44
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$63.89
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $790.04
Charles Oliveira position
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $179.2
Lakers position
Pacers vs. Lakers
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.8
Yes position
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.9
Caio Borralho position
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card)
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32
No position
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.45
Yes position
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.3
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.44
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.79
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.79
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.91
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.74
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5?
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- -$10.89
Lerone Murphy position
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$48.4
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$86
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$91
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$110
Yes position
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-06?
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$150
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?Yes 23.5% 387.71 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?Yes 0.8% 200 shares
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Yes 61.5% 145 shares
- UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)Lerone Murphy 32% 93.75 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes 31% 45.45 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes 20% 78.94 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes 19% 78.95 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes 33% 45.45 shares
- Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?Yes 30% 30.42 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Yes 6.4% 1,561.2 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?Yes 2.1% 2,384.05 shares
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No 99.9% 73.52 shares