No position
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $109.85
- Potential payout
- $130
- Potential profit
- $20.15
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $5.85
Polymarket Trader
FlightRadar
0x152e773b1986b1c885917a4c9d6cf8d1956f9963
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $874.85
- Realized PnL
- $299.53
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.2%
- Current value
- $126.34
- Potential payout
- $129.98
- Potential profit
- $3.64
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $14.04
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $97.78
- Potential payout
- $122.99
- Potential profit
- $25.21
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $3.52
Down position
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 19?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $102.64
- Potential profit
- $102.64
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $66.28
- Potential payout
- $94.01
- Potential profit
- $27.73
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $3.11
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $57.09
- Potential payout
- $88.52
- Potential profit
- $31.42
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $12.49
Yes position
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $70
- User PnL
- -$3.43
Yes position
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $59.85
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $10.15
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
N
No position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $44.44
- Potential payout
- $69.99
- Potential profit
- $25.55
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- -$2.15
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $41.03
- Potential payout
- $68.97
- Potential profit
- $27.93
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $1.03
No position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.4%
- Current value
- $52.88
- Potential payout
- $65
- Potential profit
- $12.12
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $0.62
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $29.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $20.75
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $1.25
Yes position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$21
Yes position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $12.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $37.25
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $26.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $23.75
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $1.75
No position
UK Recession in 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $31.3
- Potential payout
- $43.48
- Potential profit
- $12.17
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $1.3
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $37.74
- Potential profit
- $37.74
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $4.69
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $26.56
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.56
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $25.05
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $4.95
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $1.35
N
No position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.1%
- Current value
- $27.93
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $2.07
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
Yes position
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Ends Aug 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $18.44
- Potential payout
- $29.99
- Potential profit
- $11.55
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$0.45
No position
SPLC found guilty in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47%
- Current value
- $12.09
- Potential payout
- $25.72
- Potential profit
- $13.63
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- $3.6
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $17.37
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $7.63
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- -$2.13
No position
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $14.18
- Potential payout
- $20.4
- Potential profit
- $6.22
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- -$0.82
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $124.38
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.18
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.11
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.5
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- $12.5
Yes position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Multiplier
- 35.71x
- User PnL
- $12.03
Down position
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 18?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.44
Down position
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 18?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.91
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $8.89
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- $7.2
Up position
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 19?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.17
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.58
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- $5.05
No position
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $4.95
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.56
Down position
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.45
Down position
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 10?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.94
No position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- $2.49
Yes position
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.14
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- $2.07
Down position
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 10?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.9
No position
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $1.1
Up position
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No 78% 25 shares
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes 86% 30 shares
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?No 49% 50 shares
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?No 66% 45 shares
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes 86% 40 shares
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?No 86% 7.98 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No 66% 20 shares
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?No 85% 20 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 56% 15 shares
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?No 81% 30 shares
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?No 63% 20 shares
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?No 87% 22 shares