No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.8K
- Potential profit
- $18.8K
- User PnL
- -$285.99
Polymarket Trader
radek44
0x153b22e659b68393b0136df4ad94a27e523a65d8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.86K
- Realized PnL
- $2.76K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.2K
- Potential profit
- $10.2K
- User PnL
- -$130
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.2K
- Potential profit
- $7.2K
- User PnL
- -$110
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.8%
- Current value
- $173.25
- Potential payout
- $877.19
- Potential profit
- $703.95
- Multiplier
- 5.06x
- User PnL
- $23.25
No position
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
Ends Mar 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $704.32
- Potential payout
- $795.85
- Potential profit
- $91.52
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $69.92
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $646.43
- Potential payout
- $714.29
- Potential profit
- $67.86
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $146.43
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $400.67
- Potential payout
- $556.49
- Potential profit
- $155.82
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $30.67
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $438.88
- Potential payout
- $471.91
- Potential profit
- $33.03
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $18.88
No position
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $436.76
- Potential payout
- $441.18
- Potential profit
- $4.41
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $136.77
No position
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $378.66
- Potential payout
- $435.24
- Potential profit
- $56.58
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $78.66
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $370
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $30
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $170
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $373.87
- Potential profit
- $373.87
- User PnL
- -$310
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $357.14
- Potential profit
- $357.14
- User PnL
- -$150
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $348.2
- Potential payout
- $352.07
- Potential profit
- $3.87
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $8.2
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $183.64
- Potential payout
- $349.78
- Potential profit
- $166.15
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$25.98
No position
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $328.15
- Potential payout
- $336.56
- Potential profit
- $8.41
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $28.15
No position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.1%
- Current value
- $307.77
- Potential payout
- $330.76
- Potential profit
- $22.99
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $7.77
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $323.49
- Potential profit
- $323.49
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.1%
- Current value
- $160.14
- Potential payout
- $307.66
- Potential profit
- $147.52
- Multiplier
- 1.92x
- User PnL
- -$39.86
Yes position
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $209.78
- Potential payout
- $297.56
- Potential profit
- $87.78
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $1.49
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $272.94
- Potential payout
- $274.73
- Potential profit
- $1.79
- User PnL
- $22.94
No position
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $252.92
- Potential payout
- $255.6
- Potential profit
- $2.68
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $52.92
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$230
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $245.56
- Potential payout
- $246.91
- Potential profit
- $1.36
- User PnL
- $45.56
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $283.77
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $220.12
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $199.1
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $172.03
No position
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $154.46
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $137.5
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $122.6
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.14
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.13
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.36
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100
Yes position
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.57
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.34
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.02
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.97
No position
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.37
No position
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.87
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $77.04
No position
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.82
No position
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.85
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.67
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $67.44
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.7
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.6% 262.7 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No 99.6% 278.15 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 0.2% 10,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 0.2% 15,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 0.2% 2,500 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?No 2% 100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 3.1% 323.49 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 4.9% 1,032.53 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?No 99.2% 129.26 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?No 1.5% 7,199.71 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?No 77.9% 205.33 shares
- Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 1.3% 9,090.9 shares