Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $2.56
- Potential payout
- $243.83
- Potential profit
- $241.27
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$7.19
Polymarket Trader
0x1544...38ef
0x1544956238a2d7d952ae25badc044822edc838ef
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $63.81
- Realized PnL
- $159.28
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $72.21
- Potential profit
- $72.21
- User PnL
- -$36.83
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $42.43
- Potential payout
- $49.05
- Potential profit
- $6.62
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 29, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.6
- Potential profit
- $27.6
- User PnL
- -$2.5
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $16.46
- Potential payout
- $17.23
- Potential profit
- $0.77
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.37
No position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $2.36
- Potential payout
- $7.5
- Potential profit
- $5.14
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.64
Yes position
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.53
- Potential profit
- $3.53
- User PnL
- -$2.19
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $74.37
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $32.96
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $12.2
Usyk position
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.86
Yes position
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.71
Yes position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.57
No position
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.67
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $2.62
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.59
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $2.14
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.45
No position
Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.98
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.68
Yes position
Will Russia enter Riasne by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $0.48
Yes position
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 28?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.47
Yes position
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 21?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.31
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Will Russia enter Riasne by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
Will President Trump sign 8 or more pieces of legislation into law in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 85% 5.09 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 87% 39.32 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 86% 1.06 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 88% 0.46 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Yes 18.6% 59.17 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 15% 45.93 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Yes 4% 303 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Yes 30% 16.43 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Yes 31% 0.11 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Yes 30% 0.73 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Yes 30% 0.36 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Yes 31% 0.97 shares