Yes position
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $10
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $19.99K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$10
Polymarket Trader
PMTraderAdam
@PMTraderAdam
0x154794795d978c5890b3f69264311f0bd966d066
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $18.31K
- Realized PnL
- $14.59K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $4.68K
- Potential payout
- $4.7K
- Potential profit
- $21.15
- User PnL
- $175.66
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $1.98K
- Potential payout
- $2.4K
- Potential profit
- $420
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $232
Yes position
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1.75K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $250
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$4.99
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $30.75
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.47K
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$149.25
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.27K
- Potential payout
- $1.41K
- Potential profit
- $133.71
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $257.02
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $810
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $390
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $255
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.9%
- Current value
- $1.01K
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $193.8
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $282.6
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.2%
- Current value
- $972.02
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $28
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $102
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $870.01
- Potential profit
- $870.01
- User PnL
- -$678.48
No position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $275.92
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $524.08
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$19.48
No position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $765.28
- Potential payout
- $792.22
- Potential profit
- $26.94
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $52.22
Yes position
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $263.62
- Potential payout
- $786.94
- Potential profit
- $523.31
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$133.59
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $748.38
- Potential payout
- $758.62
- Potential profit
- $10.24
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $25.72
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $687.46
- Potential payout
- $723.64
- Potential profit
- $36.18
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $54.18
No position
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $688.91
- Potential payout
- $712.78
- Potential profit
- $23.88
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $80.12
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $567.15
- Potential payout
- $600.16
- Potential profit
- $33.01
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $19.02
No position
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $482.87
- Potential payout
- $585.29
- Potential profit
- $102.43
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $321.12
Yes position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $499.25
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$19.75
No position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.2%
- Current value
- $345.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $154.25
- Multiplier
- 1.45x
- User PnL
- $90.75
No position
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Current value
- $471.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $28.25
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$7.75
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $496.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $3.75
- User PnL
- $16.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
No position
Will Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.21K
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $891.2
No position
Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $814.62
Yes position
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $699.99
Y
Yes position
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $699.18
No position
Peter Attia out by February 15?
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $669.39
No position
Kash Patel out by April 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $666.98
Yes position
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $611.84
No position
Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $589.36
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $562.6
Yes position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $546
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $509.3
Yes position
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $502.71
Yes position
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $496
No position
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $484.26
No position
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by August 10?
Ends Aug 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $468.8
No position
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $467.06
No position
Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $447.3
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $436.3
No position
Steve Bannon exonerated by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $421.29
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $418.69
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $380.75
No position
Will another MrBeast video get 55m+ day 1 views by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $375.14
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes 99.7% 300 shares
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?Yes 44% 600 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes 68% 899.99 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes 67.4% 184.55 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes 54.7% 300 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?No 63.4% 400 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?No 28.2% 131.22 shares
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?Yes 80% 300 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.8% 2,000 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?No 74% 191.38 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 31% 150 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 55.4% 150 shares