Yes position
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $234.62
- Potential payout
- $284.38
- Potential profit
- $49.77
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $50.62
Polymarket Trader
wakeupsawly
0x157711eda7e92649d62fa79852e77ff95b834b52
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $234.62
- Realized PnL
- $289.37
- Win rate
- 71.4%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 14
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $188.65
- Potential profit
- $188.65
- User PnL
- -$25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.61
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.84
Yes position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $29.25
Yes position
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $28.88
Yes position
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.68
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.54
Yes position
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.37
No position
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.72
No position
Grok 4.20 released by February 28?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.05
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.38
Yes position
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.22
Yes position
GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$12.86
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Yes 4.7% 1,063.94 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?No 34% 128.58 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?No 31.1% 128.59 shares
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?Yes 64.7% 284.38 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 71% 130.43 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 36.2% 372.46 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 26.8% 372.47 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 23% 130.43 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Yes 3.2% 625 shares
- Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes 15% 163 shares
- Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes 18.2% 7.4 shares
- Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes 10.3% 50 shares