DCB1991

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $252.26
Potential payout: $291.63
Potential profit: $39.37
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $2.26

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $146.03
Potential payout: $168.82
Potential profit: $22.79
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $30.03

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $93.01
Potential payout: $108.78
Potential profit: $15.77
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $55.01

Yes position

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $8.69
Potential payout: $102.23
Potential profit: $93.54
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.31

Yes position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $32.6
Potential payout: $90.55
Potential profit: $57.95
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: -$2.4

Yes position

Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.7%
Current value: $7.83
Potential payout: $90.09
Potential profit: $82.26
Multiplier: 11.51x
User PnL: -$2.17

Yes position

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $23.16
Potential payout: $87.41
Potential profit: $64.25
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$1.84

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $75.36
Potential payout: $77.45
Potential profit: $2.09
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $20.36

Yes position

Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 48.1%
Current value: $37.18
Potential payout: $77.39
Potential profit: $40.2
Multiplier: 2.08x
User PnL: -$8.82

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.71
Potential profit: $76.71
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 41.6%
Current value: $31.76
Potential payout: $76.43
Potential profit: $44.67
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $1.76

No position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $46.84
Potential payout: $76.17
Potential profit: $29.33
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$3.16

Yes position

Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $72.89
Potential profit: $72.89
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $40.83
Potential payout: $72.28
Potential profit: $31.45
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $5.83

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $58.57
Potential payout: $70.15
Potential profit: $11.57
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $3.57

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $45.26
Potential payout: $51.14
Potential profit: $5.88
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $0.26

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $10.08
Potential payout: $50.51
Potential profit: $40.43
Multiplier: 5.01x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.25
Potential profit: $45.25
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.69
Potential profit: $44.69
User PnL: -$40

No position

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $27.16
Potential payout: $39.09
Potential profit: $11.93
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$2.84

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.59
Potential profit: $36.59
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $10.32
Potential payout: $28.27
Potential profit: $17.95
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$9.68

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.03
Potential profit: $27.03
User PnL: -$20

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $809.53

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.17

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.29

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.9

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.9

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.68

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.77

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.33

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.32

Yes position

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.46

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.12

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.3

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.7

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-07-09?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.45

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.65

No position

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.99

Yes position

Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.12

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.11

Yes position

Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.26

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?