Polymarket Trader

ir27kowalski

0x15d18a9db9f633b1ae6894d65ea1ed495f709005

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $241.89
Realized PnL: $240.76
Win rate: 87.5%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 62.1%
Current value: $117.82
Potential payout: $189.88
Potential profit: $72.06
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: -$4.08

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $73.92
Potential payout: $83.06
Potential profit: $9.14
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $33.92

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $6.2
Potential payout: $65.22
Potential profit: $59.02
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$23.8

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.32
Potential payout: $49.49
Potential profit: $49.17
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$19.68

No position

Trump out as President before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $20.61
Potential payout: $40.82
Potential profit: $20.2
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $0.61

No position

Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $19.8
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $20.2
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.3%
Current value: $2.25
Potential payout: $11.7
Potential profit: $9.44
Multiplier: 5.19x
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $1.92
Potential profit: $0.95
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$0.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.33

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.14

No position

Ukraine election called in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.43

Yes position

Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.39

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.28

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.23

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.15

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on July 9?

Ends Jul 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.63

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

Patriots position

Patriots vs. Broncos

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.99

Yes position

Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.57

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.18

Yes position

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?

Ends Sep 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.68

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.82

Yes position

Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.73

Yes position

Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time?

Ends Jul 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.32

Yes position

Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.08

No position

Will Elon register the America Party in July?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.16

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.24

No position

Will anyone say "Russia" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call?

Ends Jul 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

No position

US x Russia military clash by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will PSG vs. Real Madrid end in a draw after regulation time?

Ends Jul 9, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.21

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.78

Tigers position

Rays vs. Tigers

Ends Jul 16, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Yes 64.2% 189.88 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

No 48.2% 83.06 shares
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

No 50% 94.23 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 17.1% 11.7 shares
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

No 52% 96.15 shares
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

No 50% 40 shares
Trump out as President before GTA VI?

No 49% 40.82 shares
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Yes 42% 38.46 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

No 99.9% 53.33 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

No 75% 53.33 shares
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Yes 75% 40 shares
Patriots vs. Broncos

Patriots 71% 30.99 shares