Polymarket Trader

PolyArbi

0x15f640495cf23010380a34863bc94239584ee3f8

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $1.02K
Realized PnL: $0
Win rate: Unavailable
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 0
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.63
Potential payout: $313.86
Potential profit: $313.23
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$2.17

Yes position

Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $311.33
Potential profit: $311.33
User PnL: -$20.73

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $310.06
Potential profit: $310.06
User PnL: -$6.47

Yes position

Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$11.7

Yes position

Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$64.7

Yes position

Will Michael Foust win the Tallahassee mayoral election?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $1.22
Potential payout: $243.09
Potential profit: $241.88
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$7.77

Yes position

Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $19.28
Potential payout: $226.85
Potential profit: $207.57
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$4.72

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the TX-36 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $189
Potential payout: $210
Potential profit: $21
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$2.1

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the TX-36 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 7.3%
Current value: $15.23
Potential payout: $210
Potential profit: $194.78
Multiplier: 13.79x
User PnL: $9.13

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $178.32
Potential payout: $200.36
Potential profit: $22.04
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $10.32

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $198
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will Daryl Parks win the Tallahassee mayoral election?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 22.9%
Current value: $45.45
Potential payout: $198.91
Potential profit: $153.46
Multiplier: 4.38x
User PnL: $11.52

Yes position

Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 24.4%
Current value: $47.48
Potential payout: $195
Potential profit: $147.52
Multiplier: 4.11x
User PnL: $6.53

Yes position

Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $6.83
Potential payout: $195
Potential profit: $188.18
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: $0.98

Yes position

Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 49%
Current value: $95.55
Potential payout: $195
Potential profit: $99.45
Multiplier: 2.04x
User PnL: -$3.9

Yes position

Will Bosnia and Herzegovina be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $182.06
Potential profit: $181.78
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$27.1

Yes position

Will Qatar be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $180.44
Potential profit: $180.17
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$2.95

Yes position

Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $142.28
Potential payout: $180.1
Potential profit: $37.82
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $91.18

Yes position

Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $32.4
Potential payout: $180
Potential profit: $147.6
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$50.4

Yes position

Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $33.36
Potential payout: $128.3
Potential profit: $94.94
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: $9.09

Yes position

Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $93.35
Potential payout: $127
Potential profit: $33.66
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$6.03

Yes position

Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $119.11
Potential profit: $118.81
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.2

Yes position

Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $93.71
Potential payout: $115
Potential profit: $21.29
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $36.21

Yes position

Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $22.43
Potential payout: $115
Potential profit: $92.58
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $1.73

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No closed positions returned for this trader.

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

Yes 83.9% 200.36 shares
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

Yes 0.9% 313.86 shares
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

Yes 10.6% 226.85 shares
Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

Yes 0.7% 200 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23?

Yes 1.3% 25.7 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23?

Yes 97% 41 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23?

Yes 2.5% 66.7 shares
Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 18% 115 shares
Will Senegal finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 27% 115 shares
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 50% 115 shares
Will the Republican Party win the TX-36 House seat?

Yes 91% 210 shares
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-36 House seat?

Yes 2.9% 210 shares