No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.54K
- Potential profit
- $2.54K
- User PnL
- -$60
Polymarket Trader
GinoLaMenace
0x164842ccb45ef1e06ffd74a1c6dba93e84cca676
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.63K
- Realized PnL
- $3.04K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $775.11
- Potential payout
- $805.72
- Potential profit
- $30.62
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $70.08
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $666.86
- Potential payout
- $728.81
- Potential profit
- $61.95
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $115.53
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.4%
- Current value
- $572.1
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $27.9
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $47.1
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $433.21
- Potential payout
- $463.32
- Potential profit
- $30.12
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $40.83
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Current value
- $409.41
- Potential payout
- $433.93
- Potential profit
- $24.52
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $94.89
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Current value
- $23.47
- Potential payout
- $352.94
- Potential profit
- $329.47
- Multiplier
- 15.04x
- User PnL
- -$6.53
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $242.91
- Potential payout
- $289.18
- Potential profit
- $46.27
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $11.39
Yes position
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $113.69
- Potential payout
- $249.87
- Potential profit
- $136.18
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $161.92
- Potential payout
- $203.67
- Potential profit
- $41.75
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $27.95
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.4%
- Current value
- $67.42
- Potential payout
- $159.02
- Potential profit
- $91.6
- Multiplier
- 2.36x
- User PnL
- -$18.86
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.7%
- Current value
- $121.23
- Potential payout
- $144.93
- Potential profit
- $23.7
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $21.23
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $37.74
- Potential payout
- $41.7
- Potential profit
- $3.96
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $3.54
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $689.32
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $311.86
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $280.31
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $215.66
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $201.87
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $151.2
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.18
Alexander Zverev position
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $117
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $116.4
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.81
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $91.87
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.6
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.34
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.6
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.9
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.08
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.7%
- Multiplier
- 13.07x
- User PnL
- $36.18
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.6
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.35
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.57
Yes position
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.56
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 54% 59.2 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 53.9% 18.55 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 53.9% 18.55 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 54.3% 18.42 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 55.1% 36.3 shares
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes 71% 14.68 shares
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes 88% 27.02 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 77.1% 135.2 shares
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 82.8% 120.81 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 93.4% 102.97 shares
- Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes 52% 58 shares
- Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes 52% 78.98 shares