Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $152.98
- Potential payout
- $599.94
- Potential profit
- $446.95
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$16.09
Polymarket Trader
0x1668d4b52386c4a3F472F6B045dd615cdE9843D5-1754989652496
0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.2K
- Realized PnL
- $284.23
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $334.01
- Potential payout
- $400.01
- Potential profit
- $66
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$13
Yes position
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $101.76
- Potential payout
- $370.02
- Potential profit
- $268.26
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- -$57.2
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $296.85
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $3.15
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $2.45
Yes position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $25
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $175
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.5
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $95.96
- Potential payout
- $100.01
- Potential profit
- $4.05
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $8.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $91.5
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Discord IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.2%
- Current value
- $56.2
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $43.8
- Multiplier
- 1.78x
- User PnL
- -$5.8
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $88.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $11.5
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$2.1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $77
- Potential profit
- $77
- User PnL
- -$1.04
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $6.65
- Potential payout
- $69.97
- Potential profit
- $63.32
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $0.15
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 11?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.82
- Potential profit
- $58.82
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on September 17?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.73
- Potential profit
- $58.73
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on September 15?
Ends Sep 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $51.39
- Potential profit
- $51.39
- User PnL
- -$42.1
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $7.25
- Potential payout
- $49.99
- Potential profit
- $42.75
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $49.98
- Potential profit
- $49.98
- User PnL
- -$6.6
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 9?
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $41.67
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $33.33
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.2%
- Current value
- $25.26
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $4.74
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $0.27
Yes position
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$27.1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on September 16?
Ends Sep 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.75
- Potential profit
- $26.75
- User PnL
- -$3.45
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.32
- Potential profit
- $26.32
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- $48.4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on September 17?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.65
Up position
Solana Up or Down on September 13?
Ends Sep 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on September 15?
Ends Sep 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.9
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.7
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 12?
Ends Sep 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on September 15?
Ends Sep 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.17
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on September 16?
Ends Sep 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.97
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- $10.88
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.8
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.49
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7
Yes position
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-27?
Ends Sep 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69-70°F on September 7?
Ends Sep 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.9
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.87
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.63
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 14?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.5
Brewers position
Brewers vs. Reds
Ends Aug 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.25
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 13?
Ends May 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.04
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 12?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.75
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on September 14?
Ends Sep 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.42
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 30?Yes 16% 18.75 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 47% 120 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25?Yes 18% 5.56 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25?Yes 15% 28.7 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25?Yes 26.7% 18.7 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 24?Yes 36% 11.11 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 24?Yes 21% 23.81 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 3.5% 100 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23?Yes 36% 11.11 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 88% 10 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22?Yes 32% 12.5 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 22?No 98.9% 10.11 shares