No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.2K
- Potential profit
- $2.2K
- User PnL
- -$2.09K
Polymarket Trader
longdated-poli
0x167a807987c8da3aea97bc36cb394fc04d3c91d5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.24K
- Realized PnL
- $5.43K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $322.79
- Potential payout
- $817.18
- Potential profit
- $494.39
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- -$54.82
Yes position
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $116
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $684
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$57.75
Y
Yes position
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $8
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $792
- Multiplier
- 100.00x
- User PnL
- -$78
No position
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.4%
- Current value
- $603.2
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $196.8
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- -$36.8
Yes position
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $587.27
- Potential payout
- $799
- Potential profit
- $211.74
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- -$91.89
No position
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.4%
- Current value
- $646.63
- Potential payout
- $748.41
- Potential profit
- $101.78
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.95
No position
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $75.35
- Potential payout
- $717.62
- Potential profit
- $642.27
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$75.35
Y
Yes position
Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $8.45
- Potential payout
- $650.17
- Potential profit
- $641.72
- Multiplier
- 76.92x
- User PnL
- -$97.1
No position
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.3%
- Current value
- $581.16
- Potential payout
- $636.88
- Potential profit
- $55.73
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$20.51
Yes position
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.3%
- Current value
- $567.83
- Potential payout
- $629.17
- Potential profit
- $61.34
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- -$20.05
No position
Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $549.67
- Potential profit
- $549.67
- User PnL
- -$500.24
No position
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026?
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $5.07
- Potential payout
- $534.06
- Potential profit
- $528.99
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$27.58
N
No position
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-05 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $355.51
- Potential payout
- $497.21
- Potential profit
- $141.7
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$21.34
Y
Yes position
Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.6%
- Current value
- $30.11
- Potential payout
- $459.64
- Potential profit
- $429.53
- Multiplier
- 15.27x
- User PnL
- -$49.9
No position
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
Ends Oct 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $231.33
- Potential payout
- $458.07
- Potential profit
- $226.74
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$41
No position
Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.3%
- Current value
- $398
- Potential payout
- $431.44
- Potential profit
- $33.44
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$14.71
No position
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $218
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $182
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- -$57.09
No position
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $317.25
- Potential payout
- $379.94
- Potential profit
- $62.69
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$14.95
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $255.14
- Potential payout
- $351.92
- Potential profit
- $96.78
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- -$1.76
No position
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.4%
- Current value
- $320.99
- Potential payout
- $343.86
- Potential profit
- $22.87
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$4.41
No position
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.4%
- Current value
- $261.23
- Potential payout
- $337.5
- Potential profit
- $76.27
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$47.93
No position
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.1%
- Current value
- $177.43
- Potential payout
- $192.75
- Potential profit
- $15.32
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$4.14
No position
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $150.06
- Potential payout
- $183
- Potential profit
- $32.94
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- -$12.81
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Biden finish his term?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $593.55
No position
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $587.41
Miami Marlins position
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $550
No position
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $533.66
Hawks position
Knicks vs. Hawks
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $340
No position
Starmer out before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $266.44
No position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $252.22
No position
Le Pen sentence reduced in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $204.14
No position
Macron out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $197.2
No position
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $190.31
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $189.32
Yes position
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $157.53
No position
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.52
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.02
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $132.64
No position
Will Biden resign before the election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130.67
Yes position
Left-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.97
No position
Telegram banned by EU country before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.48
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120
No position
Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.14
Yes position
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.58
No position
Starmer out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.54
Yes position
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.78
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?Yes 5% 110.27 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No 95% 800 shares
- Will the Republican Party win the CA-32 House seat?Yes 4% 244.8 shares
- Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?Yes 80% 297.83 shares
- Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 24% 3.5 shares
- UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?Yes 3.6% 77.25 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?Yes 14% 102.98 shares
- Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?No 84% 0.14 shares
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?Yes 39% 400 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Yes 19% 13.26 shares
- Will the Republican Party win the LA-03 House seat?No 6% 225 shares
- Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?No 86.1% 34.14 shares