No position
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $415.67
- Potential payout
- $598.17
- Potential profit
- $182.5
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $245.67
Polymarket Trader
0x168E4Ae7B2Bd364379331749C94CA89CD6b1F134-1767886895575
0x168e4ae7b2bd364379331749c94ca89cd6b1f134
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.06K
- Realized PnL
- $926.07
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11%
- Current value
- $60
- Potential payout
- $545.45
- Potential profit
- $485.45
- Multiplier
- 9.09x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $22.2
- Potential payout
- $373.13
- Potential profit
- $350.93
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$2.8
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $307.69
- Potential profit
- $307.69
- User PnL
- -$40
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $264.71
- Potential profit
- $264.71
- User PnL
- -$90
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $149.83
- Potential payout
- $251.82
- Potential profit
- $101.99
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- -$4.07
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.8%
- Current value
- $25.32
- Potential payout
- $215.52
- Potential profit
- $190.19
- Multiplier
- 8.51x
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $128.22
- Potential payout
- $132.53
- Potential profit
- $4.31
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $18.22
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $131.45
- Potential profit
- $131.45
- User PnL
- -$60
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $124.17
- Potential payout
- $131.4
- Potential profit
- $7.23
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $24.31
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $75.53
- Potential payout
- $87.32
- Potential profit
- $11.79
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $17.03
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.1%
- Current value
- $63.52
- Potential payout
- $80.36
- Potential profit
- $16.83
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $18.52
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $235.44
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $106.09
No position
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.37
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.06
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.37
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.93
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.37
Yes position
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $39.32
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.15
Yes position
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $24.06
Yes position
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $20
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
Ends Feb 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.69
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $16.95
Yes position
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $16.94
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
Ends Feb 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.02
Yes position
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.89
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.22
Yes position
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $13.17
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.31
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.67
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.51
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.59
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.95
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 6.7% 373.13 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 11.6% 215.52 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 77% 48.6 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 83% 132.53 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?No 13% 307.69 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Yes 87% 69.75 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Yes 87% 69.75 shares
- Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?No 62.5% 66.31 shares
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes 11% 545.45 shares
- Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?No 69.1% 29.79 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 85% 47.01 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Yes 43% 139.51 shares