pm-other-01

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $279.41
Potential payout: $326.8
Potential profit: $47.39
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $7.84

No position

Trump declares election interference national emergency?

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $46.9
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $23.1
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: -$15.1

Yes position

Will Trump nationalize elections?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $6.5
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $43.5
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$0.5

No position

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.1%
Current value: $36.04
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $3.96
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $2.44

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $21.8
Potential payout: $39.99
Potential profit: $18.2
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $4.02

No position

UK Recession in 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $28.25
Potential payout: $38.44
Potential profit: $10.19
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $8.61

No position

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $28.33
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $5
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $2.65

No position

Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $30.43
Potential payout: $32.89
Potential profit: $2.47
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.12

No position

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Implied probability: 63%
Current value: $20.41
Potential payout: $32.4
Potential profit: $11.99
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: -$0.32

No position

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Implied probability: 92.4%
Current value: $27.72
Potential payout: $30.02
Potential profit: $2.3
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.01

Yes position

Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $4.38
Potential payout: $29.18
Potential profit: $24.8
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$0.13

No position

Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $15.64
Potential payout: $24.06
Potential profit: $8.42
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: $0.28

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $19.95
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $0.05
User PnL: $3.75

No position

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $12.2
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $7.8
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: $1.24

Yes position

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $5.4
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $14.6
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$1.4

No position

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Implied probability: 90.3%
Current value: $18.05
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $1.95
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $1.25

No position

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $17.9
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $2.1
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.4

No position

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $17.9
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $2.1
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.2

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $18.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $1.7
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1

No position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $17.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $2.3
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $2.4

No position

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $18.4
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $1.6
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.9

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $17.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $2.7
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $2.9

No position

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $18.6
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $1.4
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.5

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $18.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $1.7
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.7

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $66.86

Yes position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.39

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $28.48

Yes position

Canada recession before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.7

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $17.06

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.92

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.28

Yes position

FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.1

Yes position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.98

Yes position

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.65

Yes position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 13%
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: $5.8

No position

Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.65

Yes position

US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.6

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.5

Yes position

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.93

Yes position

Will Putin visit China by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.67

No position

Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.56

No position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.55

No position

Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.04

Yes position

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $3.7

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $2.9

Yes position

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.5

No position

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?