Polymarket Trader

NateEsparza

0x16e56b9015f356b0da06b33a8939a2461fed7153

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $61.82
Realized PnL: $380.08
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$138

No position

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $129.99
Potential profit: $129.99
User PnL: -$96.39

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $70
User PnL: -$62

No position

Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $70
User PnL: -$55.9

No position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$24.5

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$51.9

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 83.2%
Current value: $49.92
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $10.08
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.32

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$33.7

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.9
Potential profit: $43.9
User PnL: -$25.8

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$13.3

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$22.8

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$7.4

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$4.2

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$8

No position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $11.9
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $8.1
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $3.7

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$4

No position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1.7

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$0.8

Yes position

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$6.7

No position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$5.9

Yes position

Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$0.37

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 17?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1.8

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.81

No position

Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.8

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.42

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.4

No position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21

No position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.94

No position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.8

No position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.03

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.9

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.7

No position

Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.62

No position

Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15

No position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.67

No position

EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.8

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.63

No position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.94

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.8

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.7

No position

Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.5

No position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.27

$80k position

Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.2

No position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.43

No position

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.4

No position

Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.33

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

No 55% 30 shares
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?

Yes 28% 25.64 shares
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?

Yes 39% 25.64 shares
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 66% 45.45 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 68% 102.94 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 69% 72.46 shares
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Yes 59% 33.9 shares
Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch?

No 99.9% 30.78 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

No 93% 20 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

No 99.9% 190 shares
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?

No 86% 58.14 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

No 89% 39.99 shares