Polymarket Trader

cmarx

@carlmarxpmt

0x173314380de52766200850634f85a1b7a88b9411

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $8.97K
Realized PnL: $3.23K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.5K
Potential profit: $3.5K
User PnL: -$228.5

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $2.45K
Potential payout: $3.38K
Potential profit: $930.43
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $196.75

No position

Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $1.66K
Potential payout: $1.68K
Potential profit: $15.11
User PnL: $126.24

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $1.29K
Potential payout: $1.32K
Potential profit: $29.1
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $235.35

No position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $1.3K
User PnL: -$360

Yes position

Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $1.11K
User PnL: -$31.3

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $135
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $865
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$24.4

Yes position

Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $27.01
Potential payout: $831
Potential profit: $803.99
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$121.25

Yes position

Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $678.14
Potential payout: $688.12
Potential profit: $9.98
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $51.95

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $669.99
Potential profit: $669.99
User PnL: -$539.09

No position

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 63.3%
Current value: $407.24
Potential payout: $642.95
Potential profit: $235.71
Multiplier: 1.58x
User PnL: $169.19

No position

Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $509.84
Potential payout: $579.36
Potential profit: $69.52
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $96.71

Yes position

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $172.45
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $327.55
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$227.55

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $127.49
Potential payout: $499.98
Potential profit: $372.48
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$32.5

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.9%
Current value: $39.17
Potential payout: $495.8
Potential profit: $456.63
Multiplier: 12.66x
User PnL: -$43.06

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $356.96
Potential payout: $488.99
Potential profit: $132.03
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $14.67

Yes position

Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 88.2%
Current value: $369.85
Potential payout: $419.33
Potential profit: $49.48
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $34.38

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $153.24
Potential payout: $378.37
Potential profit: $225.13
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$38.59

Yes position

Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $209.74
Potential payout: $236.99
Potential profit: $27.25
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $17.87

No position

Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $176.01
Potential payout: $207.07
Potential profit: $31.06
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $28.99

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $177.48
Potential profit: $177.48
User PnL: -$126.01

No position

Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $134.52
Potential payout: $139.25
Potential profit: $4.73
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $11.98

Yes position

Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 54.4%
Current value: $59.79
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $50.22
Multiplier: 1.84x
User PnL: -$24.81

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $87.04
Potential profit: $87.04
User PnL: -$55

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $974.52

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $934.22

No position

Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $322.21

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $135.77

No position

Will Trump say "No No No" this week? (April 19)

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.68

Yes position

Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $117.93

No position

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.52

No position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $64.4

Yes position

Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.99

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit Delaware in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.53

No position

Will Trump say "Autopen" during WHCA Dinner events?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.75

Yes position

Will Hillary's remarks not air?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.94

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.2

No position

Will Clavicular be banned from Kick by April 30?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.1

No position

Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during WHCA Dinner events?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.81

Yes position

Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 53%
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: $10.36

No position

Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Taoiseach events?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Will Trump's Honduran Presidential meeting not air?

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8

No position

Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.9

No position

Will Trump say "Drug" during Fox interview on Wednesday?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.48

No position

Will Trump say "Nicki" or "Nikki" or "Rapper" this week? (February 8)

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.92

No position

Will Trump say "Paper tiger" during Fox interview on Wednesday?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.04

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

No 81.7% 40 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Yes 41% 990.99 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 32% 24.09 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

No 70% 488.99 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

No 74.8% 322.86 shares
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

No 76.6% 335.85 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Yes 68% 990.99 shares
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

No 65.8% 106.9 shares
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

No 71% 207.07 shares
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

No 62.6% 136.61 shares
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

No 23.1% 220.58 shares
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

No 88% 139.25 shares