No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $74.55
- Potential profit
- $74.55
- User PnL
- -$40
Polymarket Trader
sycamor3
0x17b4980a012fc5fe666f8b258dd6360938b362ba
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $170.32
- Realized PnL
- $223.75
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $40.62
- Potential payout
- $44.89
- Potential profit
- $4.26
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $20.62
No position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $22.34
- Potential payout
- $42.55
- Potential profit
- $20.21
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $2.34
N
No position
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.1%
- Current value
- $5.7
- Potential payout
- $40.43
- Potential profit
- $34.73
- Multiplier
- 7.10x
- User PnL
- -$24.3
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.8%
- Current value
- $25.3
- Potential payout
- $30.19
- Potential profit
- $4.89
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $20.81
- Potential payout
- $29.11
- Potential profit
- $8.3
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$1.02
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.79
- Potential profit
- $27.79
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.73
- Potential profit
- $27.73
- User PnL
- -$12
No position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $20.35
- Potential payout
- $23.26
- Potential profit
- $2.91
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.86
- Potential profit
- $17.86
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $13.94
- Potential payout
- $17.53
- Potential profit
- $3.59
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.44
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.4
- Potential profit
- $17.4
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.17
- Potential profit
- $15.17
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $11.02
- Potential payout
- $12.05
- Potential profit
- $1.02
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.02
N
No position
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $10.23
- Potential payout
- $11.63
- Potential profit
- $1.4
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.23
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.59
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $23.82
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.56
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.46
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.87
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.48
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.8
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.62
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.08
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.16
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.09
Yes position
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.01
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.06
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $4.22
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.98
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.88
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.59
Yes position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.02
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.96
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $2.93
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.88
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.83
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No 77% 17.53 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 95.8% 14.49 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 75% 29.11 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 69% 14.49 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No 44.6% 44.89 shares
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No 71% 28.17 shares
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Yes 26.8% 32.41 shares
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Yes 61.7% 32.42 shares
- Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?Yes 75% 13.33 shares
- Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?No 83% 12.05 shares
- Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 88% 22.73 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 86% 23.26 shares