Polymarket Trader

Kefrey

0x17d8fff6eadb26952b4f0825578609c1a8e2af90

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $447.43
Realized PnL: $34.03
Win rate: 95.8%
Open positions: 5
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $443.89
Potential payout: $472.22
Potential profit: $28.33
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $103.89

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $67.33
Potential profit: $67.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 38.4%
Current value: $1.42
Potential payout: $3.7
Potential profit: $2.28
Multiplier: 2.61x
User PnL: -$0.58

Toledo position

Toledo vs. Bowling

Ends Oct 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.26
Potential profit: $3.26
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2.12
Potential payout: $2.12
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.12

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will a Democrat win Ohio US Senate Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $24.64

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2

Yes position

Swell airdrop in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.68

No position

Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03

No position

Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.97

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.66

Yes position

Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?

Ends Oct 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.54

Houston position

Houston vs. Oklahoma State

Ends Oct 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

Army position

Charlotte 49ers vs. Army

Ends Oct 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.23

No position

Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Will Jensen Huang flip AI for Time Person of the Year by Friday?

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.12

No position

Pump.fun airdrop in Q2 2025?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

No Opensea token launch by July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Linea airdrop in Q2 2025?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will India invade Pakistan before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18?

Ends Oct 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18?

Ends Oct 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Will Kamala go on Lex Fridman podcast?

Ends Nov 2, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

No position

OpenSea airdrop before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Base airdrop in Q2 2025?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Will Jill Stein get >1% of the popular vote?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024?

Ends Dec 29, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.13

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 72% 55.56 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 72% 416.67 shares
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?

Yes 94.3% 2.12 shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 54% 3.7 shares
Will Jensen Huang flip AI for Time Person of the Year by Friday?

No 94% 2.13 shares
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?

Yes 1.5% 67.33 shares
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?

No 95.9% 2.22 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

No 56% 5.08 shares
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

No 83.6% 4.75 shares
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?

Yes 90.9% 20.42 shares
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?

Yes 84.7% 3.54 shares
Toledo vs. Bowling

Toledo 92% 3.26 shares