Yes position
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.47
- Potential payout
- $944.26
- Potential profit
- $943.79
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$50.52
Polymarket Trader
0x18CD3Eb49412052ed956086Bb37fFEF471516FB1-1772203276939
0x18cd3eb49412052ed956086bb37ffef471516fb1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $15.04
- Realized PnL
- -$30.76
- Win rate
- 91.3%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 23
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $309.48
- Potential profit
- $309.48
- User PnL
- -$47.8
Yes position
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $1.08
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $82.25
- Multiplier
- 76.92x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $65.75
- Potential profit
- $65.75
- User PnL
- -$6.1
Yes position
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 11?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.43
- Potential profit
- $50.43
- User PnL
- -$1.81
Yes position
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $1
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $30.25
- Multiplier
- 31.25x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $22.22
- Potential profit
- $22.21
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.99
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.99
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.99
Yes position
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $1.32
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $15.34
- Multiplier
- 12.58x
- User PnL
- $0.32
Yes position
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $14.71
- Potential profit
- $14.67
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.96
Yes position
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $0.19
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $12.31
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.81
Yes position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $9.27
- Potential payout
- $10.36
- Potential profit
- $1.09
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $5.65
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.4%
- Current value
- $1.62
- Potential payout
- $7.94
- Potential profit
- $6.31
- Multiplier
- 4.89x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
Yes position
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.98
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$1.18
Spurs position
Knicks vs. Spurs
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$3.4
PortlandFire position
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.72
- Potential profit
- $1.72
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.72
- Potential profit
- $1.72
- User PnL
- -$1
Carolina Chaos position
Utah Archers vs. Carolina Chaos
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.64
- Potential profit
- $1.64
- User PnL
- -$1
Yaojie Zeng position
ITF Luan: Hanyi Liu vs Yaojie Zeng
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.54
- Potential profit
- $1.54
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $19.2
Philadelphia Phillies position
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.78
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- $0.68
Yes position
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Multiplier
- 54.05x
- User PnL
- $0.67
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- $0.64
Colorado Eagles position
AHL: Colorado Eagles vs. Chicago Wolves
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $0.63
No position
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.62
No position
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 27.8%
- Multiplier
- 3.60x
- User PnL
- $0.56
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- $0.56
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- $0.53
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.51
Yes position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $0.48
Chicago Sky position
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.41
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Will India win?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
Y
Yes position
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$61.71
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 35% 10.36 shares
- Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?No 36% 4.34 shares
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 11?Yes 3.6% 50.43 shares
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?No 0.1% 5,800 shares
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?No 0.1% 29,000 shares
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?No 0.1% 9,000 shares
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?No 0.1% 9,000 shares
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?No 0.2% 2,000 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 25.2% 7.94 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes 50% 3 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes 50% 2 shares
- Utah Archers vs. Carolina ChaosCarolina Chaos 61% 1.64 shares