No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $375
- Potential profit
- $375
- User PnL
- -$300
Polymarket Trader
firm.nail
0x19269988eec540e7923dde1de3a9be714da54a52
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $280.5
- Realized PnL
- -$37.23
- Win rate
- 68.2%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $191
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $9
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $27
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $89.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $10.5
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.39
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.7
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.87
No position
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.19
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.18
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.85
Rico position
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30.14
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.04
No position
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.96
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.55
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.7
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.95
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.8
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$54.99
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$67.78
No position
More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$85
No position
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$99.79
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico VerhoevenRico 80% 11.63 shares
- Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico VerhoevenRico 43% 11.63 shares
- Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico VerhoevenRico 43% 83.33 shares
- Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico VerhoevenRico 12% 83.33 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?No 98.2% 50 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No 58.9% 416.74 shares
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?No 71% 145.49 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ETDown 99% 104.35 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ETDown 75% 103.43 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ETDown 70% 9.46 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ETDown 52% 9.32 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ETUp 72.8% 134.72 shares