Yes position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.3%
- Current value
- $16.97K
- Potential payout
- $271.5K
- Potential profit
- $254.53K
- Multiplier
- 16.00x
- User PnL
- -$5.09K
Polymarket Trader
Leon8899
0x19344b25b205a60fa61fa99621f01a22df3c0a4b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $21.55K
- Realized PnL
- $34.33K
- Win rate
- 60%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 20
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $92.63K
- Potential profit
- $92.63K
- User PnL
- -$593.09
Yes position
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $227.5
- Potential payout
- $65K
- Potential profit
- $64.77K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$1.77K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $4.35K
- Potential payout
- $58K
- Potential profit
- $53.65K
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$286.17
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.2K
- Potential profit
- $41.2K
- User PnL
- -$3.15K
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.07K
- Potential profit
- $35.07K
- User PnL
- -$216.78
Yes position
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.49K
- Potential profit
- $31.49K
- User PnL
- -$1.28K
Yes position
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30K
- Potential profit
- $30K
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.44K
- Potential profit
- $26.44K
- User PnL
- -$1.47K
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $25K
- User PnL
- -$259.95
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $20K
- User PnL
- -$143.3
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18K
- Potential profit
- $18K
- User PnL
- -$2.12K
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.91K
- Potential profit
- $17.91K
- User PnL
- -$116.94
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.79K
- Potential profit
- $15.79K
- User PnL
- -$297.91
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.47K
- Potential profit
- $15.47K
- User PnL
- -$143.06
No position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.33K
- Potential profit
- $15.33K
- User PnL
- -$1.49K
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.84K
- Potential profit
- $14.84K
- User PnL
- -$222.27
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.91K
- Potential profit
- $13.91K
- User PnL
- -$144.53
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.91K
- Potential profit
- $11.91K
- User PnL
- -$205.15
Yes position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.3K
- Potential profit
- $11.3K
- User PnL
- -$514.15
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.89K
- Potential profit
- $10.89K
- User PnL
- -$131.13
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.05K
- Potential profit
- $10.05K
- User PnL
- -$996.57
Yes position
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$574.61
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$230
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.76K
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.57K
No position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.96K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.56K
No position
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.82K
Yes position
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77K
Yes position
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $248
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $224.99
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.81
Yes position
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $99.27
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Multiplier
- 20.00x
- User PnL
- $15.89
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $15.85
Yes position
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Qiang in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Multiplier
- 40.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.63
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$573.15
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$950
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.14K
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.04K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.1K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?Yes 6.8% 300 shares
- Will Xi Jinping purge Li Qiang in 2026?Yes 3.4% 365.37 shares
- Xi Jinping out by June 30?Yes 0.4% 1,360 shares
- Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 0.4% 65.62 shares
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?Yes 6.7% 180 shares
- Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?Yes 3.5% 202 shares
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?Yes 6.7% 20.4 shares
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?Yes 6.7% 257 shares
- Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?Yes 3.2% 148.66 shares
- Will Xi Jinping purge Li Qiang in 2026?Yes 4.5% 115.14 shares
- Xi Jinping out by June 30?Yes 0.9% 248.99 shares
- Iran leadership change by June 30?Yes 10% 58 shares