No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $110.46
- Potential payout
- $128.45
- Potential profit
- $17.98
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $26.97
Polymarket Trader
0x193a...32c1
0x193ab99ff35eeb0093179753945e1d2e67ae32c1
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $181.03
- Realized PnL
- $599.14
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $5.37
- Potential payout
- $44.76
- Potential profit
- $39.39
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- -$2.24
Yes position
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $24.41
- Potential payout
- $28.4
- Potential profit
- $3.99
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $4.56
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $15.28
- Potential payout
- $20.23
- Potential profit
- $4.96
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
No position
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $18.88
- Potential payout
- $19
- Potential profit
- $0.12
- User PnL
- $4.65
Yes position
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $6.64
- Potential payout
- $6.74
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.58
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $132.11
No position
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.55
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.75
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.55
No position
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.07
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.33
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.37
No position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.44
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19
No position
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.5
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.83
No position
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.41
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.17
Yes position
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.2
Yes position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.85
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.4
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.05
No position
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.28
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.24
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.22
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.66
No position
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.37
No position
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 44.2% 18.01 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 86% 9.4 shares
- Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?Yes 37% 4.3 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?No 0.1% 1,606.22 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?No 0.2% 1,695 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?No 3.1% 25.15 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?No 3% 87.85 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?No 19% 113 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 65% 137.85 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 17% 44.76 shares
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?No 74.9% 19 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Yes 64% 11.81 shares