Mrpike

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $483.06
Potential payout: $508.48
Potential profit: $25.42
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $113.06

No position

Will Trump say "UFC" this week?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $222.83
Potential profit: $222.83
User PnL: -$155.94

No position

Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $186.29
Potential profit: $186.29
User PnL: -$60

No position

Will John Fleming drop out?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $121.35
Potential payout: $137.12
Potential profit: $15.77
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $11.35

No position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $1.88
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $123.13
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$8.13

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $123.08
Potential profit: $123.08
User PnL: -$80

No position

Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $112.35
Potential payout: $115.23
Potential profit: $2.88
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $12.35

No position

Tony Gonzales charged by June 30?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $95.96
Potential payout: $107.22
Potential profit: $11.26
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$4.04

No position

UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $89.95
Potential profit: $89.95
User PnL: -$20

No position

US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $68.84
Potential payout: $80.05
Potential profit: $11.21
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $8.84

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70.42
Potential profit: $70.42
User PnL: -$50

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $65.34
Potential payout: $65.93
Potential profit: $0.59
User PnL: $5.34

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $60.58
Potential payout: $64.1
Potential profit: $3.53
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $10.58

No position

Grok 4.4 released by June 30?

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $59.38
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $3.13
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $49.38

No position

Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.15
Potential profit: $58.15
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $20
Potential payout: $53.34
Potential profit: $33.34
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Trump announce new sanctions on China?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $53
Potential profit: $53
User PnL: -$5

No position

Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.93
Potential profit: $50.93
User PnL: -$32

No position

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.38
Potential profit: $40.38
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Epstein suicide note released by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.73
Potential profit: $35.73
User PnL: -$2.5

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $27.39
Potential payout: $28.17
Potential profit: $0.77
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $7.39

No position

Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.59
Potential profit: $26.59
User PnL: -$19.8

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $23.91
Potential payout: $24.69
Potential profit: $0.78
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $3.91

No position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.81
Potential profit: $23.81
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $145.08

No position

Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.87

No position

GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.88

No position

Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.55

No position

Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.84

No position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.16

No position

US x China tariff agreement by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.61

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.12

No position

Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.81

No position

Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.31

No position

Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.99

No position

Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.93

No position

US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.19

No position

Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.74

No position

VEO 4 released by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.47

No position

Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.17

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.17

No position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.73

No position

US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.93

No position

Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.16

No position

Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.61

No position

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.49

No position

Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.39

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?