No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $36.82
- Potential payout
- $37.02
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- User PnL
- $3.87
Polymarket Trader
0x19f4...3245
0x19f45a1c0691ae40b4542ab8e0c792ce80233245
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $76.98
- Realized PnL
- $26.52
- Win rate
- 90%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 20
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 66%
- Current value
- $12.97
- Potential payout
- $19.64
- Potential profit
- $6.68
- Multiplier
- 1.52x
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $11.53
- Potential payout
- $13.72
- Potential profit
- $2.2
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.03
- Potential payout
- $11.86
- Potential profit
- $11.83
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$7.04
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $5.44
- Potential payout
- $5.45
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.77
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $4.31
- Potential payout
- $4.76
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- -$0.18
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $3.05
- Potential payout
- $3.87
- Potential profit
- $0.81
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $0.59
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $2.84
- Potential payout
- $2.85
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.18
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.31
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.13
Yes position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.47
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.02
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.12
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.05
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.76
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.75
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.58
Yes position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.36
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $0.27
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- -$0.33
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.56
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 61% 2.89 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 58% 1.72 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 54% 1.85 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 53% 1.89 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 84.4% 1.18 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 84.3% 1.19 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 61% 1.64 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 60% 2 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?No 59% 1.69 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 80.9% 1.24 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?Yes 97.9% 1.71 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?Yes 97.8% 1.02 shares