Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.24K
- Potential profit
- $20.24K
- User PnL
- -$138.16
Polymarket Trader
nofreelunch
0x19f83e2cd86e19468acb5a3621971d2ba662fa4d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $853.21
- Realized PnL
- $1.16K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.88K
- Potential profit
- $5.88K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $19.36
- Potential payout
- $3.52K
- Potential profit
- $3.5K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$30.64
Yes position
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $8.33
- Potential payout
- $3.33K
- Potential profit
- $3.33K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.66
Yes position
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $6.25
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.49K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.75
Yes position
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $6.25
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.49K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.75
Yes position
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $5
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $5
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.66K
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $4.86
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $1.38K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$32.64
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $130.61
- Potential payout
- $1.37K
- Potential profit
- $1.24K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$49.39
Yes position
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $4.38
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$5.63
Yes position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $5.62
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.24K
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$94.25
Yes position
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $4.55
- Potential payout
- $909.09
- Potential profit
- $904.55
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$5.45
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $13.93
- Potential payout
- $898.81
- Potential profit
- $884.87
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$36.07
Yes position
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $2.83
- Potential payout
- $434.78
- Potential profit
- $431.96
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$7.17
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.9%
- Current value
- $87.17
- Potential payout
- $365.49
- Potential profit
- $278.32
- Multiplier
- 4.19x
- User PnL
- -$2.83
Yes position
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $4.76
- Potential payout
- $352.53
- Potential profit
- $347.77
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$5.24
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 39%
- Current value
- $104.7
- Potential payout
- $268.82
- Potential profit
- $164.11
- Multiplier
- 2.57x
- User PnL
- $4.7
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $202.34
- Potential payout
- $218.74
- Potential profit
- $16.41
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $2.34
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $1.75
- Potential payout
- $166.67
- Potential profit
- $164.92
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$8.25
Yes position
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Current value
- $5.01
- Potential payout
- $151.87
- Potential profit
- $146.86
- Multiplier
- 30.30x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.21
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$9.36
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Current value
- $125.7
- Potential payout
- $134.08
- Potential profit
- $8.38
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $5.7
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $104.18
- Potential payout
- $108.7
- Potential profit
- $4.51
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $4.18
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165.67
No position
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.74
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.19
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.31
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.77
No position
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?
Ends Oct 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.73
Yes position
Will Trump say 'Mexico' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?
Ends Mar 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.43
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.39
No position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.91
No position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.22
No position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.08
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.82
Yes position
Ethereum all time high before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.81
No position
US recession in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.29
Yes position
Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.48
No position
Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?
Ends Jan 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.84
No position
Will India join the Board of Peace?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.78
Yes position
Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.17
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?
Ends Jul 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.64
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 2?
Ends Jan 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.48
No position
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.13
No position
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.36
Yes position
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.33
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.33
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No 62% 40.32 shares
- Trump out as President before 2027?Yes 10.2% 687.31 shares
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?Yes 29% 103.45 shares
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?OpenAI 75% 26.67 shares
- Will Trump praise Elon Musk by May 31, 2026?No 8.1% 124.17 shares
- Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?No 26.7% 74.91 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?No 6.9% 144.92 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?No 18% 555.01 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 23% 43.48 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?No 14.1% 355.68 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 1.4% 3,519.17 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 5.6% 898.81 shares