Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.1%
- Current value
- $101.84
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $1.02K
- Multiplier
- 11.05x
- User PnL
- -$78.16
Polymarket Trader
gilligilli
0x1a6d0772c4eb931e41ef6c74fc8d07a969dff672
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $143.16
- Realized PnL
- $128.52
- Win rate
- 46.2%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 13
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $864.27
- Potential profit
- $864.27
- User PnL
- -$667.69
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $420
- Potential profit
- $420
- User PnL
- -$3.36
Yes position
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $246.96
- Potential profit
- $246.96
- User PnL
- -$16.75
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $60
- User PnL
- -$3.6
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $60
- User PnL
- -$4.2
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$25.85
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$4.15
Yes position
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $4.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $45.25
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$6.75
No position
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $21.13
- Potential payout
- $41.83
- Potential profit
- $20.71
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- $0.65
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.48
- Potential profit
- $34.48
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $15.44
- Potential payout
- $29.41
- Potential profit
- $13.97
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$4.56
Yes position
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.22
- Potential profit
- $10.22
- User PnL
- -$2.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $178
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.8
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40
Yes position
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.67
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.69
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2
Yes position
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$13.84
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$18
No position
TikTok sale announced by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 87% 68.96 shares
- Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?Yes 4.7% 300 shares
- Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?Yes 11% 134.42 shares
- Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool?Yes 21% 10.22 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?Yes 8.3% 50 shares
- Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?Yes 15.9% 68.49 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 29% 68.97 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes 29% 34.48 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Yes 18% 100 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?Yes 6% 60 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?No 99.4% 200 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Yes 7% 60 shares