Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $1.43
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $13.58
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$2.87
Polymarket Trader
Delvair
0x1a8197e060ed2b382a1e39caddf83ee46fecccd5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $12.91
- Realized PnL
- $64.23
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Discord IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.6%
- Current value
- $6.16
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $3.84
- Multiplier
- 1.62x
- User PnL
- -$3.33
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $0.36
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $5.89
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- -$0.64
Yes position
Deel IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $0.23
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.78
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$3.22
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $0.33
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.68
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$2.02
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $1.45
- Potential payout
- $2.7
- Potential profit
- $1.26
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- -$0.55
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.17
- Potential profit
- $2.17
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.85
- Potential payout
- $1.85
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.85
Yes position
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $0.14
- Potential payout
- $1.32
- Potential profit
- $1.18
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.86
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.27
- Potential profit
- $1.27
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $0.98
- Potential payout
- $1.12
- Potential profit
- $0.15
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.6
Yes position
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.26
No position
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.8
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 13?
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.25
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.85
Yes position
Will the US strike Syria next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.63
Yes position
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the announcement on December 22?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.45
Yes position
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?
Ends Dec 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.33
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.2
No position
Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?
Ends Jan 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.87
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76
No position
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7
Yes position
Will Brandon Herrera be the Republican nominee for TX-23?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.63
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
Ends Feb 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $114K in September?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17
No position
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?
Ends Sep 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.15
Yes position
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13
Yes position
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?
Ends Dec 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes 78% 1.28 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 89% 1.12 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?Yes 79% 1.27 shares
- Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30?Yes 76% 1.32 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?Yes 87% 2.29 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 46% 2.17 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 63% 3.17 shares
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?No 96.9% 2.06 shares
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Yes 66% 3.03 shares
- Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?No 54% 1.85 shares
- Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?Yes 47% 2.13 shares
- US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?Yes 23% 4.35 shares