No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- User PnL
- -$100
Polymarket Trader
0x1AAc8DA953333450DF04882210D047583F2B66FB-1774010861675
0x1aac8da953333450df04882210d047583f2b66fb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $378.99
- Realized PnL
- $4K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $4.08
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $1.16K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$77.57
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $787.77
- Potential profit
- $787.77
- User PnL
- -$220.4
Yes position
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $12.95
- Potential payout
- $454.55
- Potential profit
- $441.59
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- $2.95
Yes position
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $453.45
- Potential profit
- $453.45
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $46
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $354
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$34
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $3.8
- Potential payout
- $399.99
- Potential profit
- $396.19
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$42.2
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $17.15
- Potential payout
- $385.3
- Potential profit
- $368.16
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- -$102.85
Yes position
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$4.9
Yes position
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $333.33
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $333.33
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $294.38
- Potential profit
- $294.38
- User PnL
- -$64.86
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $83.79
- Potential payout
- $294.12
- Potential profit
- $210.32
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- $33.79
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $12.57
- Potential payout
- $270.27
- Potential profit
- $257.7
- Multiplier
- 21.51x
- User PnL
- $2.57
Yes position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $46.26
- Potential payout
- $257.01
- Potential profit
- $210.75
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$23.74
Yes position
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $252.07
- Potential profit
- $252.07
- User PnL
- -$14.85
Yes position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64%
- Current value
- $152.38
- Potential payout
- $238.1
- Potential profit
- $85.71
- Multiplier
- 1.56x
- User PnL
- $52.38
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $205.13
- Potential profit
- $205.13
- User PnL
- -$8
Yes position
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$34
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $199.99
- User PnL
- -$19
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $179.85
- Potential profit
- $179.85
- User PnL
- -$10
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.13K
Yes position
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.8
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.39
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.5
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.13
Yes position
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.28
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.39
No position
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $37.99
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.17
Yes position
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.83
No position
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.52
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.77
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.83
No position
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.05
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.73
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.15
No position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026?
Ends Apr 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.2
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.77
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.6
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 11.5% 15.05 shares
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?Yes 20% 68 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026?Yes 16% 99.98 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ETUp 8% 62.5 shares
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes 27.2% 257.01 shares
- Will Sweden be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Yes 22% 100 shares
- Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?Yes 1.4% 350 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ETUp 1% 500 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ETUp 45% 11.11 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ETUp 54% 12.82 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ETUp 39% 12.82 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ETUp 4% 123.88 shares