Yes position
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $14.94
- Potential payout
- $295.81
- Potential profit
- $280.87
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- -$0.91
Polymarket Trader
0x1aac...d1e3
0x1aacf02365e0f2be274fb0330f312d8a0fa4d1e3
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $123.99
- Realized PnL
- $5.29K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $2.12
- Potential payout
- $136.74
- Potential profit
- $134.62
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- $1.03
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $114.66
- Potential profit
- $113.91
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$13.35
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $73.3
- Potential profit
- $73.26
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$16.82
Yes position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $16.5
- Potential payout
- $67.34
- Potential profit
- $50.84
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$1.01
Y
Yes position
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $50.73
- Potential payout
- $54.84
- Potential profit
- $4.11
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $6.28
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.13
- Potential payout
- $52.37
- Potential profit
- $52.24
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.05
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.2%
- Current value
- $3
- Potential payout
- $48.75
- Potential profit
- $45.75
- Multiplier
- 16.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.9
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $2.1
- Potential payout
- $46.66
- Potential profit
- $44.56
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$1.63
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.28
- Potential payout
- $43.11
- Potential profit
- $42.83
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$23
Yes position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $0.5
- Potential payout
- $39.99
- Potential profit
- $39.49
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.3
No position
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.19
- Potential payout
- $25.04
- Potential profit
- $24.85
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$5.82
Yes position
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $20.74
- Potential profit
- $20.73
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.61
Yes position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $4.46
- Potential payout
- $19.84
- Potential profit
- $15.38
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- -$3.67
Yes position
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $0.38
- Potential payout
- $14.24
- Potential profit
- $13.86
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- -$3.75
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61%
- Current value
- $8.06
- Potential payout
- $13.21
- Potential profit
- $5.15
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- -$0.4
Yes position
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $2.85
- Potential payout
- $12.14
- Potential profit
- $9.28
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $1.46
- Potential payout
- $11.68
- Potential profit
- $10.22
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.46
Yes position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $9.72
- Potential payout
- $11.24
- Potential profit
- $1.52
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.28
Yes position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $0.13
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $10.98
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$2.21
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $1.27
- Potential payout
- $11.04
- Potential profit
- $9.77
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$3.59
Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $10.02
- Potential profit
- $9.98
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $1.45
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.55
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 39%
- Current value
- $2.9
- Potential payout
- $7.44
- Potential profit
- $4.54
- Multiplier
- 2.56x
- User PnL
- -$0.45
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $681
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $632.23
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $471.92
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $382.51
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $381.67
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $345.87
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $227.19
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $208.54
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $183.13
No position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.23
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $157.5
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.76
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $148.3
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $145.09
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $140.41
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.23
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.77
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.23
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.71
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.88
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.94
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.13
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.26
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.93
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 99% 4.21 shares
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 98.9% 2.73 shares
- Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 5.6% 57.14 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 9% 224.87 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 92% 4.71 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 14% 44.44 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 7.6% 49.86 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 7.7% 24.8 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 18% 98.06 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 83.5% 14.77 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 78% 14.13 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 80.6% 9.39 shares