Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 39%
- Current value
- $196.59
- Potential payout
- $504.74
- Potential profit
- $308.14
- Multiplier
- 2.57x
- User PnL
- -$47.39
Polymarket Trader
VKCz4DXpxMzc85GXxekG
0x1ab5fef31af92c9d404d2293a0ccf7fa1aeb4859
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $706.03
- Realized PnL
- $771.93
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 61.1%
- Current value
- $258.24
- Potential payout
- $423
- Potential profit
- $164.76
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- $46.74
Yes position
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Current value
- $4.65
- Potential payout
- $120.71
- Potential profit
- $116.07
- Multiplier
- 25.97x
- User PnL
- -$0.47
Yes position
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $1.51
- Potential payout
- $120.67
- Potential profit
- $119.16
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- $0.33
Yes position
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
Ends Jan 29, 2027- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $14.16
- Potential payout
- $104.91
- Potential profit
- $90.75
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $1.61
Yes position
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $20.33
- Potential payout
- $92.41
- Potential profit
- $72.08
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- $6.9
Yes position
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $12.28
- Potential payout
- $84.69
- Potential profit
- $72.41
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Yes position
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.2%
- Current value
- $24.65
- Potential payout
- $81.75
- Potential profit
- $57.1
- Multiplier
- 3.32x
- User PnL
- $22.54
Yes position
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
Ends Jan 29, 2027- Implied probability
- 6.6%
- Current value
- $4.05
- Potential payout
- $61.3
- Potential profit
- $57.26
- Multiplier
- 15.15x
- User PnL
- -$6.19
Yes position
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 34%
- Current value
- $20.48
- Potential payout
- $60.22
- Potential profit
- $39.75
- Multiplier
- 2.94x
- User PnL
- $8.21
Yes position
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $1.82
- Potential payout
- $37.05
- Potential profit
- $35.23
- Multiplier
- 20.41x
- User PnL
- -$2.85
No position
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $17.95
- Potential payout
- $31.22
- Potential profit
- $13.27
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $1.95
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $22.82
- Potential payout
- $29.83
- Potential profit
- $7.01
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $2.81
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $9.57
- Potential payout
- $26.23
- Potential profit
- $16.65
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.43
Yes position
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $4.09
- Potential payout
- $23.39
- Potential profit
- $19.3
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $0.75
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $20.42
- Potential payout
- $22.56
- Potential profit
- $2.14
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.42
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.1%
- Current value
- $4.51
- Potential payout
- $17.33
- Potential profit
- $12.81
- Multiplier
- 3.84x
- User PnL
- -$5.49
No position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 76.2%
- Current value
- $12.63
- Potential payout
- $16.59
- Potential profit
- $3.96
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- -$0.37
Yes position
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $4.56
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $7.94
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $11.66
- Potential payout
- $11.71
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- User PnL
- $0.67
No position
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $11.52
- Potential payout
- $11.66
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $2.52
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $11.46
- Potential payout
- $11.49
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $1.46
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jun 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $8.75
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $1.25
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $7.33
- Potential payout
- $7.73
- Potential profit
- $0.41
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.33
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $328.98
Yes position
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $172.44
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.4
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.39
Yes position
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.81
No position
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?
Ends Jan 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.65
No position
Will Trump meet with King Mohammed VI of Morocco in January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.27
Yes position
Will the People's Bank of China not change rates in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.5
No position
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $13.03
No position
Deel IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $8.24
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.98
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.29
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.9
Down position
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
Ends Jan 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.89
Up position
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
Ends Feb 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.98
Yes position
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.5
No position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.49
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.21
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.95
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.87
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.25
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.22
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
No position
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.76
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?Yes 3.5% 85.71 shares
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?Yes 1.4% 5 shares
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?Yes 17.3% 20 shares
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?Yes 6.8% 15 shares
- Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?Yes 26% 3.85 shares
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?Yes 9% 12 shares
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?Yes 0.4% 12.3 shares
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?Yes 1.2% 30 shares
- Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?Yes 3.5% 30 shares
- Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?No 21.7% 18.4 shares
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No 56.9% 3.51 shares
- Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?No 31.5% 12.69 shares