Yes position
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $112.21
- Potential payout
- $3.56K
- Potential profit
- $3.45K
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- $16.03
Polymarket Trader
HardOrHome
0x1acd9431889d302d0c9e1b4dadc78b9efaf8c664
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $226.94
- Realized PnL
- $3.05K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3%
- Current value
- $17.7
- Potential payout
- $599.99
- Potential profit
- $582.29
- Multiplier
- 33.90x
- User PnL
- -$16.5
Yes position
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.2%
- Current value
- $10.3
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $189.7
- Multiplier
- 19.42x
- User PnL
- -$9.7
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $19
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $181
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$13
Yes position
Will Chaiany Andrade win Big Brother Brasil 26?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$42
Yes position
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42%
- Current value
- $58.79
- Potential payout
- $139.98
- Potential profit
- $81.19
- Multiplier
- 2.38x
- User PnL
- -$8.4
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $5.4
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $94.6
- Multiplier
- 18.52x
- User PnL
- -$4.6
Yes position
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $79.96
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$11.72
No position
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $70.79
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- -$9.36
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $2.85
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $27.15
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $0.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $710
Yes position
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $375.69
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?
Ends Feb 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $223.6
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $161.5
Yes position
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-18?
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $158
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
Ends Jan 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $125.65
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $125.33
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $121.77
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $107
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.08
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.31
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.21
Yes position
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 50% and 52%?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.79
Yes position
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during WEF Address on January 21?
Ends Jan 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.3
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.82
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.04
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
Ends Feb 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.87
Yes position
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during WEF Address on January 21?
Ends Jan 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
Ends Jan 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.46
Yes position
Will Trump say "Friend of Mine" during WEF Address on January 21?
Ends Jan 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.8
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.52
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 2.7% 3,462.22 shares
- Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 2.7% 100 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Yes 2.4% 600 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?Yes 0.3% 4,469.05 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Yes 10% 100 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Yes 2% 600 shares
- Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?Yes 8% 200 shares
- Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?Yes 6% 200 shares
- Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?Yes 0.5% 215.43 shares
- GTA VI released before June 2026?Yes 0.2% 4,053.75 shares
- GTA VI released before June 2026?Yes 1.2% 4,053.76 shares
- Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?Yes 48% 61.79 shares