No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $939.09
- Potential payout
- $1.35K
- Potential profit
- $412.31
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- -$60.95
Polymarket Trader
convictiontrap
@wobendog
0x1ad9a2f348eaa6b6326af9c1fea382dd455e7bf6
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $939.14
- Realized PnL
- $10.14K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $1.17
- Potential profit
- $1.12
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.77K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
No position
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1K
No position
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $645.76
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $490.16
No position
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $464.34
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $399.46
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $345.05
Xtreme Gaming position
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $302.14
No position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $243.78
No position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $241.54
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $240.62
Team Liquid position
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $224.36
BetBoom Team position
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $204.87
No position
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $190.47
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.32
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $155.92
Team Yandex position
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.44
No position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $134.38
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.78
No position
Will Hyperbeat launch a token in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.81
No position
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $117.3
No position
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?No 1.8% 68.89 shares
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 15.8% 2 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?No 31.2% 33 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?No 75.8% 14.99 shares
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsBetBoom Team 51% 100 shares
- Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsLGD Gaming 39% 100 shares
- Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes 30% 20 shares
- Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes 50% 20 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?No 29.3% 170 shares
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance QualifierAurora 99.9% 56 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?No 33% 100 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?No 31.5% 60.43 shares