Polymarket Trader

Alarming-Cauliflower

0x1b2b2b444b2690f81dc914d156962141ecced461

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $298.46
Realized PnL: $92.73
Win rate: 70.8%
Open positions: 23
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$4.5

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.81
Potential profit: $142.81
User PnL: -$46.7

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $19.95
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $80.05
Multiplier: 5.01x
User PnL: $0.55

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$1.1

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $32.15
Potential payout: $32.79
Potential profit: $0.64
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $2.15

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $22.99
Potential payout: $32.61
Potential profit: $9.62
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $7.99

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.18
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.82
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$3.75

No position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $29.76
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $0.24
User PnL: $1.74

No position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $29.73
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $0.27
User PnL: $2.79

No position

Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $25.65
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $4.35
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$1.65

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $27.75
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $2.25
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $2.25

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $28.48
Potential payout: $29.99
Potential profit: $1.51
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $19.6

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $29.99
Potential profit: $29.89
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$9.1

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.8%
Current value: $20.46
Potential payout: $21.37
Potential profit: $0.91
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.46

No position

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $18.4
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $1.6
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.4

Yes position

Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $8.8
Potential payout: $15.71
Potential profit: $6.91
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $14.62
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $0.38
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.82

Yes position

Will Dricus Du Plessis be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.4%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $13.75
Multiplier: 11.98x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will Nassourdine Imavov be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23.8%
Current value: $3.57
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $11.43
Multiplier: 4.20x
User PnL: -$0.62

No position

Trump on $250 bill this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $14.63
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $0.38
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.82

Yes position

Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $8
User PnL: -$1.76

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$0.57

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the fight be won by submission?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

No position

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.4

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.56

No position

Will Kamala say "Unburdened" in August?

Ends Aug 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.21

Yes position

Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.5

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.81

No position

Ethereum all time high in 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.29

No position

Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.97

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.97

Yes position

Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.4

Yes position

Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.2

No position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25

No position

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.73

Yes position

Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on September 30, 2021?

Ends Sep 30, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.69

Up position

XRP Up or Down - February 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

Ends Feb 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Jeremiah Wells win by KO or TKO?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Nicolas Dalby win by KO or TKO?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: -$2

No position

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$7.7

No position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$7.7

No position

Will Trump and Harris debate before election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 32.7% 42.81 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 19.4% 100 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 32.7% 100 shares
Will England win on 2026-06-27?

Yes 86% 54 shares
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria?

No 89% 27 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 90.4% 13 shares
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 0.9% 500 shares
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

No 85% 20 shares
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 22% 8 shares
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 70% 8 shares
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 55% 10 shares
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 78% 10 shares